Midway Results

With just over half of the results in now, it looks like Ignatieff will come in first on the first ballot, but still well short of the number of delegates needed to win the race. Here are the results as follows

Ignatieff - 30.8%
Rae - 19.3%
Dion - 17.3%
Kennedy - 16.3%
Dryden - 5%
Volpe - 4.1%
Brison - 3.9%
Hall Findlay - 1.1%
Undeclared - 2.3%

235/467 meetings reported

Ignatieff has a pretty substantial lead so I would be very surprised if he doesn't come in first on the first ballot. But he still needs to pick up a significant number of delegates on later ballots, so I don't think it is by any means a guarantee he will win. Rae has moved into second, followed by Dion, and then Kennedy. With these three very close together and having the ability to pick up support on later ballots, I think all three of them have a decent chance at winning the leadership. Dryden, Volpe, Brison, and Hall Findlay will likely drop off on early ballots if not the first so it will be interesting to see who they go to. Still with these three having enough to clearly push Rae, Kennedy, or Dion into a strong second, they could ultimately determine who will face Ignatieff on the final ballot. Off course in the case of Brison, I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to go to Ignatieff. The fact Volpe can still get 4.1% despite all his sleaze is just truly astounding. Hall Findlay and Brison are far more deserving candidates of being Liberal leader than Volpe. Anyways I'll give my final analysis once all the results have been tabulated.