Events at Home
Most of my last posts have been on what is happening in the United States, so here is one on what is happening back here in Canada.
Federal Election Threat
The Tories have created three different possibilities for the government to fall in the next month. Considering two recent polls show them slightly behind the Liberals, albeit within the margin of error, it seems odd as to why they are so eager to go now. One of the possibilities is the budget, which off course is always a confidence motion, so I won't focus much on this one. My argument is with the next two, the crime bill in the senate and the Afghanistan motion. On the case of the crime bill, I am not sure this is even allowed as I don't believe the government has the authority to tell the senate to do anything. Now I know some will say it is wrong to hold up legislation in the senate, but the issue if senate reform is a whole different issue and should be dealt with separately. This is clearly playing political games and my hope is the speaker rules this as out of order. Likewise since an election cannot be called until October 2009, if Harper goes to the governor general and asks for an election without actually losing a confidence motion, I think she should refuse to grant this and instead ask the Liberals to form the government. While I generally don't like this idea, I wish Harper should quit trying to do things that could provoke a constitutional crisis.
Now on the Afghanistan issue, there is no risk of provoking a constitutional crisis, however, politically speaking, I cannot understand why Harper is so keen on going on this issue considering this is an area his government is weak in, especially in Quebec, where he is hoping to gain seats. I know the Manley panel did give him some cover as Manley is a well respected Liberal and his positions are not totally supportive of the Conservatives, but neither do they fully support the current Liberal position, so I wonder if Harper is hoping to divide the Liberals over this. I think Dion's position of staying in Afghanistan past 2009, but in a non-combat role is quite reasonable. This doesn't mean combat will win altogether, it simply means a country other than Canada will take it on since we have done far more than our fair share, it is not unreasonable to ask someone else in NATO to step up to the plate.
My advice to the Liberals would be to try and bring the government down on the Afghanistan issue as I think this will be the most favourable to the Liberals. However, it looks like a spring election is very likely, although not guaranteed.
Alberta Election
An Election has been called in Alberta for March 3rd. I happen to fully agree with Ralph Klein's prediction, which is the Tories will win again, but with fewer seats. That was the one thing I liked about Ralph Klein, unlike most politicians, is he would say whatever he thought and was a straight shooter. Too bad we don't have more politicians like this. Now, in terms of how I think things will play out, I expect Edmonton to go largely Liberal with a few NDP seats and maybe a few Tory seats. Although Ed Stelmach is more popular in Edmonton than Ralph Klein was, he faces the issue of many feeling the party has been in power too long and it is time for change. In the case of Calgary, the opposite is true, as Klein was very popular here and Stelmach is not. I expect the core of Calgary to go largely Liberal, while the prephery to go PC. Rural Alberta, which is Stelmach's base, should stay largely Tory, although a couple of wins by the Wildrose Alliance is possible as well as they could split the vote enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle in some smaller cities like Red Deer and Lethbridge.
Although the Tories have been in power long enough that many feel it is time for change, never mind Stelmach doesn't have the personal appeal that Ralph Klein did, so this should hurt them, however, I think they will win primarily due to the alternatives. The Liberals certainly got a boost after getting an endorsement by Ron Wood, who was a former aide to Preston Manning. Much of the Liberals weakness has been they have been seen as too liberal for Alberta, so this might help debunk this. Still I think the party is a bit to the left of your average Albertan. Unlike Ontario, where the Liberal platform would be an easy sell, Alberta is a more conservative province, so the Liberals should probably be slightly more conservative, but still to the left of the Tories if they wish to win. The Democrats in the United States are to the right of the Liberals in Canada, and likewise many of Conservative parties in Europe are to the left of the Tories in Canada. The reason for this is parties position themselves closest to where the median voter is. Also, the word Liberal, is still a dirty word in Alberta for many as many Albertans still associate the Liberals with Pierre Trudeau and his unpopular National Energy Program. I have argued in the past the party should change its name so it is not associated with the federal Liberals. My suggestions were the moderate party or centre party. At least, though the federal Liberals are not in power now, which is why I think they will do better than they have in the past, since in addition to people wanting change and Stelmach being less popular than Klein, the Liberal bogeyman won't work as well as it has other times. The NDP has never been strong in Alberta outside a few Edmonton ridings, so I expect them to struggle just to hold official party status. Albertans have seen the NDP in action in the two neighbouring provinces and have decided they don't want to go there. Finally there is the Wildrose Alliance which provides a right wing alternative to the PCs. While they will be the main competitor in Rural Alberta as this area is staunchly conservative and many find Stelmach too much of a Red Tory, they are likely a little too right wing for Calgary and Edmonton. The people in the cities are more conservative than Vancouver and Toronto, which is why they go Conservative instead of Liberal federally, but they are not hardcore right wingers like you see in the Deep South of the United States. Although history shows usually a non-opposition party on the right side of the spectrum replaces the governing party about once every 35 years, at this point I don't like the Wildrose Alliance is capable of doing this.
As for what I am hoping for, I would like to see the Tories win a weaker majority government. This would give them a good slap on the wrist, but also send a message to the opposition parties that they need to make changes. In terms of how I would vote, I would vote based on the local candidate, so in some cases I would go PC, while other areas Liberal. In 2004, I would have voted PC as I like Ralph Klein and I am generally a Progressive Conservative, but I do feel the party does need a time out. And unlike with Stephen Harper, my problem with Ed Stelmach is not that he is too right wing, after all, asides from the environment, he is a pretty big spender, but rather 35 years of governance by one party is simply too long.
Federal Election Threat
The Tories have created three different possibilities for the government to fall in the next month. Considering two recent polls show them slightly behind the Liberals, albeit within the margin of error, it seems odd as to why they are so eager to go now. One of the possibilities is the budget, which off course is always a confidence motion, so I won't focus much on this one. My argument is with the next two, the crime bill in the senate and the Afghanistan motion. On the case of the crime bill, I am not sure this is even allowed as I don't believe the government has the authority to tell the senate to do anything. Now I know some will say it is wrong to hold up legislation in the senate, but the issue if senate reform is a whole different issue and should be dealt with separately. This is clearly playing political games and my hope is the speaker rules this as out of order. Likewise since an election cannot be called until October 2009, if Harper goes to the governor general and asks for an election without actually losing a confidence motion, I think she should refuse to grant this and instead ask the Liberals to form the government. While I generally don't like this idea, I wish Harper should quit trying to do things that could provoke a constitutional crisis.
Now on the Afghanistan issue, there is no risk of provoking a constitutional crisis, however, politically speaking, I cannot understand why Harper is so keen on going on this issue considering this is an area his government is weak in, especially in Quebec, where he is hoping to gain seats. I know the Manley panel did give him some cover as Manley is a well respected Liberal and his positions are not totally supportive of the Conservatives, but neither do they fully support the current Liberal position, so I wonder if Harper is hoping to divide the Liberals over this. I think Dion's position of staying in Afghanistan past 2009, but in a non-combat role is quite reasonable. This doesn't mean combat will win altogether, it simply means a country other than Canada will take it on since we have done far more than our fair share, it is not unreasonable to ask someone else in NATO to step up to the plate.
My advice to the Liberals would be to try and bring the government down on the Afghanistan issue as I think this will be the most favourable to the Liberals. However, it looks like a spring election is very likely, although not guaranteed.
Alberta Election
An Election has been called in Alberta for March 3rd. I happen to fully agree with Ralph Klein's prediction, which is the Tories will win again, but with fewer seats. That was the one thing I liked about Ralph Klein, unlike most politicians, is he would say whatever he thought and was a straight shooter. Too bad we don't have more politicians like this. Now, in terms of how I think things will play out, I expect Edmonton to go largely Liberal with a few NDP seats and maybe a few Tory seats. Although Ed Stelmach is more popular in Edmonton than Ralph Klein was, he faces the issue of many feeling the party has been in power too long and it is time for change. In the case of Calgary, the opposite is true, as Klein was very popular here and Stelmach is not. I expect the core of Calgary to go largely Liberal, while the prephery to go PC. Rural Alberta, which is Stelmach's base, should stay largely Tory, although a couple of wins by the Wildrose Alliance is possible as well as they could split the vote enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle in some smaller cities like Red Deer and Lethbridge.
Although the Tories have been in power long enough that many feel it is time for change, never mind Stelmach doesn't have the personal appeal that Ralph Klein did, so this should hurt them, however, I think they will win primarily due to the alternatives. The Liberals certainly got a boost after getting an endorsement by Ron Wood, who was a former aide to Preston Manning. Much of the Liberals weakness has been they have been seen as too liberal for Alberta, so this might help debunk this. Still I think the party is a bit to the left of your average Albertan. Unlike Ontario, where the Liberal platform would be an easy sell, Alberta is a more conservative province, so the Liberals should probably be slightly more conservative, but still to the left of the Tories if they wish to win. The Democrats in the United States are to the right of the Liberals in Canada, and likewise many of Conservative parties in Europe are to the left of the Tories in Canada. The reason for this is parties position themselves closest to where the median voter is. Also, the word Liberal, is still a dirty word in Alberta for many as many Albertans still associate the Liberals with Pierre Trudeau and his unpopular National Energy Program. I have argued in the past the party should change its name so it is not associated with the federal Liberals. My suggestions were the moderate party or centre party. At least, though the federal Liberals are not in power now, which is why I think they will do better than they have in the past, since in addition to people wanting change and Stelmach being less popular than Klein, the Liberal bogeyman won't work as well as it has other times. The NDP has never been strong in Alberta outside a few Edmonton ridings, so I expect them to struggle just to hold official party status. Albertans have seen the NDP in action in the two neighbouring provinces and have decided they don't want to go there. Finally there is the Wildrose Alliance which provides a right wing alternative to the PCs. While they will be the main competitor in Rural Alberta as this area is staunchly conservative and many find Stelmach too much of a Red Tory, they are likely a little too right wing for Calgary and Edmonton. The people in the cities are more conservative than Vancouver and Toronto, which is why they go Conservative instead of Liberal federally, but they are not hardcore right wingers like you see in the Deep South of the United States. Although history shows usually a non-opposition party on the right side of the spectrum replaces the governing party about once every 35 years, at this point I don't like the Wildrose Alliance is capable of doing this.
As for what I am hoping for, I would like to see the Tories win a weaker majority government. This would give them a good slap on the wrist, but also send a message to the opposition parties that they need to make changes. In terms of how I would vote, I would vote based on the local candidate, so in some cases I would go PC, while other areas Liberal. In 2004, I would have voted PC as I like Ralph Klein and I am generally a Progressive Conservative, but I do feel the party does need a time out. And unlike with Stephen Harper, my problem with Ed Stelmach is not that he is too right wing, after all, asides from the environment, he is a pretty big spender, but rather 35 years of governance by one party is simply too long.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:18 PM
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