Election Predictions
Based on the fact there are no major news items out today that are likely to change things significantly and based on the predictions I have seen elsewhere I am going to post my predictions below. In the case of the Tories, they have zero chance at getting a majority, even if there is a last minute surge in their favour. They needed to gain seats in Quebec and at this point, the best they can hope for is to hold the seats they have. The Liberals could still win, but not likely though. The NDP vote is pretty firm and I doubt there will be a lot of late breakers there. On the contrary the Green vote is still quite soft as well as there is the undecided. If those two break heavily in favour of the Liberals, they could pull off a weak minority, although I am pretty much certain the Tories will still win the popular vote, just not certain as to whether they will have the most seats or not. And even if the Liberals lose, they should still have a decent size opposition and win considerably more seats than either the Bloc Quebecois or NDP. The Bloc Quebecois has totally turned things around and unlike at the beginning where many expected them to lose many seats, they now have a shot at breaking their record of 54 seats, although I doubt they will break their popular vote record of 49%. The NDP won't win become the official opposition and certainly not government as they have hoped for, but they still have a shot at breaking Ed Broadbent's record of 43 seats. So the question becomes is whether there will be a coalition or not. At this point, it seems unlikely as the philosophical differences between the Liberals and NDP are still pretty large, that being said will have to wait for the results and see what transpires. So below are my predictions.
Atlantic Canada
Liberals 21 seats
Conservatives 6 seats
NDP 4 seats
Independent 1 seat
Quebec
Bloc Quebecois 50 seats
Liberals 16 seats
Conservatives 7 seats
NDP 1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Ontario
Liberals 48 seats
Conservatives 42 seats
NDP 16 seats
Manitoba
Conservatives 9 seats
NDP 3 seats
Liberals 2 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives 13 seats
Liberals 1 seats
Alberta
Conservatives 28 seats
British Columbia
Conservatives 21 seats
NDP 9 seats
Liberals 6 seats
North
Liberals 2 seats
NDP 1 seat
CANADA
Conservatives 126 seats
Liberals 96 seats
Bloc Quebecois 50 seats
NDP 34 seats
Independent 2 seats
So after all this, it looks like we more or less have the status quo again. Talk about a wasted election. Off course maybe I will be wrong here and the numbers will be different. We shall see tomorrow night
Atlantic Canada
Liberals 21 seats
Conservatives 6 seats
NDP 4 seats
Independent 1 seat
Quebec
Bloc Quebecois 50 seats
Liberals 16 seats
Conservatives 7 seats
NDP 1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Ontario
Liberals 48 seats
Conservatives 42 seats
NDP 16 seats
Manitoba
Conservatives 9 seats
NDP 3 seats
Liberals 2 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives 13 seats
Liberals 1 seats
Alberta
Conservatives 28 seats
British Columbia
Conservatives 21 seats
NDP 9 seats
Liberals 6 seats
North
Liberals 2 seats
NDP 1 seat
CANADA
Conservatives 126 seats
Liberals 96 seats
Bloc Quebecois 50 seats
NDP 34 seats
Independent 2 seats
So after all this, it looks like we more or less have the status quo again. Talk about a wasted election. Off course maybe I will be wrong here and the numbers will be different. We shall see tomorrow night
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 8:02 AM
4 Comments:
Pretty reasonable breakdown Miles. My hope, if we don't win, we trim the Cons number. If, only by a few seats, it will be seen as a very weak mandate, any attempt to plow through legislation, the opposition can call his bluff.
I would also argue, losing seats in Quebec, will weaken the Conservatives arguments, according to Decima today, they are now almost 30 points behind, which may mean 7 seats is optimistic, it could be 3-4.
Miles:
I think you are overestimating Conservative seats in both Quebec and the Maritimes. In Quebec, depending on how efficient their vote is, they could be virtually wiped out.
As well, I believe David Orchard could pull it out in Saskatchewan. He has a huge personal organization that provides him with funds and volunteers and the Conservative that won that riding in the by-election did not do it by much.
I would put the Conservatives closer to 120 and the Liberals over the century mark.
As well, I would not yet rule out a shift of support from the NDP to the Liberals. It has happened on E-day during every other election in the past 3 decades so I would not be surprised to see it happen again. Of course it will not be much and it will probably not be enough for the Liberals to win government but it could be enough to effect some close races.
It would only take a shift of a couple of percentage points to put the Liberals into the 110 seat range.
I agree that the most likely outcome will be another weak Conservative minority government with the Liberals as the Official Opposition.
My thinking by province:
Atlantic Canada: Liberals 22, NDP 5, Conservatives 4, Independent 1
Quebec: Bloc Quebecois 56, Liberals 10, Conservatives 6, NDP 2, Independent 1
Ontario: Liberals 46, Conservatives 44, NDP 16
Manitoba: Conservatives 10, NDP 4
Saskatchewan: Conservatives 13, Liberals 1
Alberta: Conservatives 28
British Columbia: Conservatives 22, NDP 12, Liberals 2
Territories: Liberals 1, NDP 1, Conservatives 1
Canada: Conservatives 128, Liberals 82, Bloc Quebecois 56, NDP 40, Independent 2
Steve V - I too would like to see the Conservatives drop as well, but even if they hold what they got at least it will show Harper isn't the right person to take them to a majority. As for Quebec, the reason I put seven seats, is there are four seats south of Quebec City they won by massive margins and would need a much larger shift against them to cost them in those plus Josee Verner's riding. Roberval-Lac Saint Jean they were ahead according to a CROP poll.
Ottlib - You might be right, although 6 seats is pretty bad for the Tories in Atlantic Canada. While they will lose two seats for sure in Newfoundland & Labrador if not all three, they could make gains in New Brunswick. As for David Orchard, I will admit that riding is always a tough one to predict, although it is in the West where the Liberals have always had a tough time winning.
Anonymous - not totally unreasonable, although I think the Liberals will do a bit better than your prediction.
Post a Comment
<< Home