Recent Polls
We have seen a recent spate of polls which have showed slightly different numbers, although the one constant theme is Tory support is declining, while Liberals are rising. Based on how far the Tories have fallen in Quebec, I think the chances of a Tory majority are extremely low, while by the same token I think a Liberal win is still very much within the realm of possibility, even if the odds are not favourable. Based on the recent polls, I would I am revising my projections to 100-145 seats for the Tories, while 70-120 seats for the Liberals and 20-50 seats for the NDP and 40-60 seats for the Bloc Quebecois. So this means the Liberals will at the very least form the offical opposition if not win outright, while the Tories will get a strengthned minority in their base case scenario, while lose outright in the worse case scenario. This last week should be interesting as the election is far from decided.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 6:31 PM
4 Comments:
Note that the Conservatives are falling faster than the Liberals are rising in most polls. That suggests that the Greens and NDP are also gaining. I think the conservative base is abandoning them over many issues, and a party split is quite likely unless the next leader is on the right wing.
Anonymous - I am not so sure about this. I generally reject the idea that there is a strong right wing base. For one thing that the right wing base hates the Liberals enough they would vote Tory even if it means holding their nose up. I suspect the decline has more to do with the recent financial turmoil and Harper's lack of plan to deal with it. Its still too early to tell how far they will fall and how much the Liberals will rise or will the tide reverse. The next few days will be very crucial though.
The Canadian Alliance got 25% in 2000 and Reform got about 20% in 1993 and 1997, so there has to be a solid base of support out there...
Anoymous - That was almost entirely in the West, where the party holds most of the seats. In Ontario and Quebec where they need to make gains neither party did well. In addition many Reform Party votes came from people who previously voted NDP and were attracted to their populist policies.
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