Regional Analysis
Now that I have had a few days to digest the election results I thought I would give a regional breakdown on how things went. My next post will then look at each party.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams had stated he intended to see the Tories get a goose egg in the province and he succeeded in doing it, however it does mean for the first time since joining confederation, Newfoundland & Labrador will have no members sitting on the government benches. Also looking at the vote totals, it appears the huge decline in Tory support primarily benefitted the NDP as opposed to the Liberals. In fact the NDP was able to win a seat in a province that rarely elects NDP members. Although I expected the Tories to do poorly here, I am surprised they got only 17%. That being said, at least one province seems to share my views on them, well at least sort of, since as much as I don't like the Tories, I still believe they should have some seats, just not be in government.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of change here. Peter MacKay easily beat Elizabeth May as I fully expected. Also, Robert Thibault lost to the Tories in West Nova, which was not a total surprise as this has always been a competitive riding and even this time around it wasn't by a huge margin. One interesting fact in Nova Scotia, is no party got over 30% of the popular vote. I don't think this has ever happened in any province ever to the best of my knowledge, so a historical first here. If anything this probably shows just how little confidence Nova Scotians have in any of the parties.
Prince Edward Island
It may have gone predominately Liberal as expected, but for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories broke the liberal fortress of PEI by winning on seat. In the past, votes have usually been fairly evenly distributed throughout the island, whereas this time around the Tory votes were more concentrated thus despite getting a lower share of the popular vote than Mulroney in 1988, Jean Charest in 1997, and Joe Clark in 2000, there were able to win a seat. I think it is fair to say Gail Shea will get a cabinet post being the only member from PEI.
New Brunswick
This is a case where individual polling of each province would have made predicting the results in Atlantic Canada easier. The Tories were doing poorly in this region, so I assumed they wouldn't gain seats as many others did, but what many didn't realize is they had fallen through the floor in Newfoundland & Labrador, held their vote in Nova Scotia asides from Bill Casey's riding, went up slightly in PEI, while they declined slightly in the French speaking parts of New Brunswick but increased significantly in the English speaking parts. That being said, Miramichi was the only riding that I was surprised the Tories won. Fredericton and Saint John were both ridings I saw as vulnerable so the Tory pick ups there are not a total surprise. New Brunswick is the most conservative province in Atlantic Canada, so it makes sense it would be their best province. I also think regretably the Green Shift was a tough sell here, especially considering New Brunswick is quite rural.
Quebec
Gilles Duceppe claimed only the Bloc Quebecois could stop the Tories from forming a majority and based on the election results, it looks like he was right. This is not the first time people have talked about the Bloc Quebecois vanishing, after all, many said the same thing in 2003 before the sponsorship scandal erupted, yet each time there is talk of the Bloc Quebecois' demise, they somehow come right back. The Liberals got more votes and seats than the Tories, so at least the bleeding has stopped in Quebec, still they have a long ways to go before they return to their previous strength there. The Tories hopes at making a breakthrough in Quebec clearly failed to materialize, that being said they did manage to hold onto their own seats which most polls said they wouldn't. Considering how many close ridings there were in English Canada, I almost wonder had the Tories spent less money on Quebec and more on Ontario if they could have gotten their majority through English Canada. The NDP breakthrough in Quebec also failed to materialize, although they did win Outremont, which was a first as they have never won a seat in Quebec during a general election, only in a by-election (once in 1990 and again in 2007).
Ontario
In the past many Westerners, especially Albertans have blamed Ontario for preventing the Tories from doing as well as they thought they should have. This time around, Ontario clearly delivered the seats the Tories were hoping for. In fact, this is the first time since 1988 that they have beat the Liberals in seats in Ontario and the first time since 1984 they have beat them in the popular vote. While they were shut out of the 416 (thankfully where I live didn't fall for them) they did make gains in the suburbs. Despite the talk about Toronto shutting out the Tories, I suspect they never really targeted the 416 to begin with. And never mind they got as close as its doorstep to winning in Toronto (Thornhill). While I am not surprised the Tories gained seats in Ontario, I am surprised how well they did in terms of the popular vote and seats. I figured 48 seats and 37% of the popular vote was their ceiling in Ontario. The biggest surprises were the two Kitchener ridings, which I was positive would go Liberal. The only good news for the Liberals in Ontario was Gerard Kennedy won back Parkdale-High Park and also Bonnie Crombie defeated Wajid Khan (off course the Tories were able to defeat Garth Turner in return). What is though really worrying for the Liberals is how poorly they did outside the GTA. They not only lost all of rural Ontario, they got clobbered. The last three elections have resulted in a steady slide in Liberal support in Ontario, so the party must re-build there if they ever want to return to power. The NDP also gained seats, primarily in Northern Ontario, which was not too big a surprise. It also appears strategic voting was largely useless in Ontario as some ridings such as that of Finance minister Jim Flaherty or Health minister Tony Clement would have gone Tory no matter what (they both got over 50% of the popular vote). If anything the Liberals will win Ontario back by increasing voter turnout not going after strategic voters as it appears a large chunk of Liberal voters just stayed home rather than vote for other parties.
Manitoba
In what has usually been the most Liberal friendly of the Western provinces, it was not a good night for the Liberals. They only won one seat, while both the Tories and NDP were able to make gains. The Tories got 49% of the popular vote which is their best showing ever in the province and in fact I couldn't imagine them getting over 45%. Even Winnipeg which never elected a Reform/Alliance member went Tory winning 4 of the 8 seats and having the highest vote total of the parties.
Saskatchewan
Went largely Tory as I expected with the exception of Ralph Goodale who is able to win due to his personal popularity. Jack Layton was once again shut out of the birthplace of the CCF for the third time even though he was able to win a seat in the normally conservative Alberta. I though wonder if Harper will use this as evidence to make changes to the Canadian Wheat Board since with the kind of numbers he got in the Prairies he can at least claim he has a mandate to make changes (although there is no way of knowing how the farmers in the wheat and barley industry voted since they make up less than 2% of the population).
Alberta
The big news here was the Tories weren't able to sweep the province. Alberta always goes for the most right wing party on the ballot, so the question becomes more will it be a clean sweep or simply domination. This time around, the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona. This was not a total surprise as this riding has a large university population and is somewhat an anthema to what most people stereotype Alberta as being. You have several cafes along Whyte Street and many young singles living there. Likewise you have the U of A is in this riding so despite being in Alberta, the demographics are clearly not conservative. In fact, this type of riding in any other province wouldn't even be competitive for the Tories.
British Columbia
The Conservatives won close to the number of seats I thought they would, what was the big surprise here was the popular vote totals. I was surprised the Tories got 44% and the Liberals only 19%. I was also surprised how close the Tories came to unseating Ujjal Dosanjh and how easily they won Richmond (which I thought would be a lot closer). I guess the party is making inroads amongst the immigrant community, or at least the Chinese community and I would also add the Jewish community in Central Canada (i.e. Thornhill). I never really bought into the idea the Tories were making gains amongst these groups, but I guess I was wrong. If there is any lesson here, the Liberals should never take any group for granted as that is how surprises like this happen. Another interesting news is how this foreshadows the upcoming provincial election. The smashing of the Liberals certainly shows how unpopular the carbon tax is in British Columbia, however the Tories not the NDP being the primary beneficiaries shows there are probably many in the province uncomfortable with going back to the NDP. In fact if the BC Conservatives had a real party, not a joke one they might be competitive in the province. In many ways both the BC Liberals and BC NDP should be thankful the BC Conservatives are such a joke party. As much as I do support a carbon tax, the thought of the NDP returning to power in BC sends shivers up my spine. My hope is that Campbell drops it before the election and then re-introduces shortly after being re-elected. This is something you do at the beginning of a four year term, not near the end. It is the right policy, but unfortunately the public doesn't understand this and cannot made to understand it, so the only solution is to introduce far enough ahead of an election and when things don't all collapse, the public will forget about it.
North
Something here for everybody as the Liberals take the Yukon, NDP take the Northwest Territories, and the Tories take Nunavut. Also looking at the Tory numbers in Northern ridings, I wonder if they made gains amongst the Aboriginal community or did this community simply not show up as their numbers not just in the North, but in Northern Ontario, Northern Quebec, and Northern Saskatchewan are unusually high. After tearing up the Kelowna Accord, I would have thought the Aboriginal community would be infuriated at the Tories, but maybe the residential school apology is what they remember.
I will have my summary later on the parties, however I will say briefly that it was an good but not great election for the Tories and NDP as both increased their seats but failed to achieve their ultimate goals, while a disastrous one for the Liberals. As much as I like Stephane Dion and think he would have made a very good PM, I believe he has little choice but to step down.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams had stated he intended to see the Tories get a goose egg in the province and he succeeded in doing it, however it does mean for the first time since joining confederation, Newfoundland & Labrador will have no members sitting on the government benches. Also looking at the vote totals, it appears the huge decline in Tory support primarily benefitted the NDP as opposed to the Liberals. In fact the NDP was able to win a seat in a province that rarely elects NDP members. Although I expected the Tories to do poorly here, I am surprised they got only 17%. That being said, at least one province seems to share my views on them, well at least sort of, since as much as I don't like the Tories, I still believe they should have some seats, just not be in government.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of change here. Peter MacKay easily beat Elizabeth May as I fully expected. Also, Robert Thibault lost to the Tories in West Nova, which was not a total surprise as this has always been a competitive riding and even this time around it wasn't by a huge margin. One interesting fact in Nova Scotia, is no party got over 30% of the popular vote. I don't think this has ever happened in any province ever to the best of my knowledge, so a historical first here. If anything this probably shows just how little confidence Nova Scotians have in any of the parties.
Prince Edward Island
It may have gone predominately Liberal as expected, but for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories broke the liberal fortress of PEI by winning on seat. In the past, votes have usually been fairly evenly distributed throughout the island, whereas this time around the Tory votes were more concentrated thus despite getting a lower share of the popular vote than Mulroney in 1988, Jean Charest in 1997, and Joe Clark in 2000, there were able to win a seat. I think it is fair to say Gail Shea will get a cabinet post being the only member from PEI.
New Brunswick
This is a case where individual polling of each province would have made predicting the results in Atlantic Canada easier. The Tories were doing poorly in this region, so I assumed they wouldn't gain seats as many others did, but what many didn't realize is they had fallen through the floor in Newfoundland & Labrador, held their vote in Nova Scotia asides from Bill Casey's riding, went up slightly in PEI, while they declined slightly in the French speaking parts of New Brunswick but increased significantly in the English speaking parts. That being said, Miramichi was the only riding that I was surprised the Tories won. Fredericton and Saint John were both ridings I saw as vulnerable so the Tory pick ups there are not a total surprise. New Brunswick is the most conservative province in Atlantic Canada, so it makes sense it would be their best province. I also think regretably the Green Shift was a tough sell here, especially considering New Brunswick is quite rural.
Quebec
Gilles Duceppe claimed only the Bloc Quebecois could stop the Tories from forming a majority and based on the election results, it looks like he was right. This is not the first time people have talked about the Bloc Quebecois vanishing, after all, many said the same thing in 2003 before the sponsorship scandal erupted, yet each time there is talk of the Bloc Quebecois' demise, they somehow come right back. The Liberals got more votes and seats than the Tories, so at least the bleeding has stopped in Quebec, still they have a long ways to go before they return to their previous strength there. The Tories hopes at making a breakthrough in Quebec clearly failed to materialize, that being said they did manage to hold onto their own seats which most polls said they wouldn't. Considering how many close ridings there were in English Canada, I almost wonder had the Tories spent less money on Quebec and more on Ontario if they could have gotten their majority through English Canada. The NDP breakthrough in Quebec also failed to materialize, although they did win Outremont, which was a first as they have never won a seat in Quebec during a general election, only in a by-election (once in 1990 and again in 2007).
Ontario
In the past many Westerners, especially Albertans have blamed Ontario for preventing the Tories from doing as well as they thought they should have. This time around, Ontario clearly delivered the seats the Tories were hoping for. In fact, this is the first time since 1988 that they have beat the Liberals in seats in Ontario and the first time since 1984 they have beat them in the popular vote. While they were shut out of the 416 (thankfully where I live didn't fall for them) they did make gains in the suburbs. Despite the talk about Toronto shutting out the Tories, I suspect they never really targeted the 416 to begin with. And never mind they got as close as its doorstep to winning in Toronto (Thornhill). While I am not surprised the Tories gained seats in Ontario, I am surprised how well they did in terms of the popular vote and seats. I figured 48 seats and 37% of the popular vote was their ceiling in Ontario. The biggest surprises were the two Kitchener ridings, which I was positive would go Liberal. The only good news for the Liberals in Ontario was Gerard Kennedy won back Parkdale-High Park and also Bonnie Crombie defeated Wajid Khan (off course the Tories were able to defeat Garth Turner in return). What is though really worrying for the Liberals is how poorly they did outside the GTA. They not only lost all of rural Ontario, they got clobbered. The last three elections have resulted in a steady slide in Liberal support in Ontario, so the party must re-build there if they ever want to return to power. The NDP also gained seats, primarily in Northern Ontario, which was not too big a surprise. It also appears strategic voting was largely useless in Ontario as some ridings such as that of Finance minister Jim Flaherty or Health minister Tony Clement would have gone Tory no matter what (they both got over 50% of the popular vote). If anything the Liberals will win Ontario back by increasing voter turnout not going after strategic voters as it appears a large chunk of Liberal voters just stayed home rather than vote for other parties.
Manitoba
In what has usually been the most Liberal friendly of the Western provinces, it was not a good night for the Liberals. They only won one seat, while both the Tories and NDP were able to make gains. The Tories got 49% of the popular vote which is their best showing ever in the province and in fact I couldn't imagine them getting over 45%. Even Winnipeg which never elected a Reform/Alliance member went Tory winning 4 of the 8 seats and having the highest vote total of the parties.
Saskatchewan
Went largely Tory as I expected with the exception of Ralph Goodale who is able to win due to his personal popularity. Jack Layton was once again shut out of the birthplace of the CCF for the third time even though he was able to win a seat in the normally conservative Alberta. I though wonder if Harper will use this as evidence to make changes to the Canadian Wheat Board since with the kind of numbers he got in the Prairies he can at least claim he has a mandate to make changes (although there is no way of knowing how the farmers in the wheat and barley industry voted since they make up less than 2% of the population).
Alberta
The big news here was the Tories weren't able to sweep the province. Alberta always goes for the most right wing party on the ballot, so the question becomes more will it be a clean sweep or simply domination. This time around, the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona. This was not a total surprise as this riding has a large university population and is somewhat an anthema to what most people stereotype Alberta as being. You have several cafes along Whyte Street and many young singles living there. Likewise you have the U of A is in this riding so despite being in Alberta, the demographics are clearly not conservative. In fact, this type of riding in any other province wouldn't even be competitive for the Tories.
British Columbia
The Conservatives won close to the number of seats I thought they would, what was the big surprise here was the popular vote totals. I was surprised the Tories got 44% and the Liberals only 19%. I was also surprised how close the Tories came to unseating Ujjal Dosanjh and how easily they won Richmond (which I thought would be a lot closer). I guess the party is making inroads amongst the immigrant community, or at least the Chinese community and I would also add the Jewish community in Central Canada (i.e. Thornhill). I never really bought into the idea the Tories were making gains amongst these groups, but I guess I was wrong. If there is any lesson here, the Liberals should never take any group for granted as that is how surprises like this happen. Another interesting news is how this foreshadows the upcoming provincial election. The smashing of the Liberals certainly shows how unpopular the carbon tax is in British Columbia, however the Tories not the NDP being the primary beneficiaries shows there are probably many in the province uncomfortable with going back to the NDP. In fact if the BC Conservatives had a real party, not a joke one they might be competitive in the province. In many ways both the BC Liberals and BC NDP should be thankful the BC Conservatives are such a joke party. As much as I do support a carbon tax, the thought of the NDP returning to power in BC sends shivers up my spine. My hope is that Campbell drops it before the election and then re-introduces shortly after being re-elected. This is something you do at the beginning of a four year term, not near the end. It is the right policy, but unfortunately the public doesn't understand this and cannot made to understand it, so the only solution is to introduce far enough ahead of an election and when things don't all collapse, the public will forget about it.
North
Something here for everybody as the Liberals take the Yukon, NDP take the Northwest Territories, and the Tories take Nunavut. Also looking at the Tory numbers in Northern ridings, I wonder if they made gains amongst the Aboriginal community or did this community simply not show up as their numbers not just in the North, but in Northern Ontario, Northern Quebec, and Northern Saskatchewan are unusually high. After tearing up the Kelowna Accord, I would have thought the Aboriginal community would be infuriated at the Tories, but maybe the residential school apology is what they remember.
I will have my summary later on the parties, however I will say briefly that it was an good but not great election for the Tories and NDP as both increased their seats but failed to achieve their ultimate goals, while a disastrous one for the Liberals. As much as I like Stephane Dion and think he would have made a very good PM, I believe he has little choice but to step down.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 3:28 PM
10 Comments:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the first wave of Trudeaumania in '68 landed with a whimper on the Newfoundland/Labrador shores, resulting in a goose-egg.
As usual, very concise analysis, Miles. Do you miss us in Vancouver?
Burlivespipe - Newfoundland & Labrador did buck the national trend during Trudeaumania in 1968, but the Liberals did win one seat nonetheless. However, it is true this is another example of them going against the national trend. Interestingly in 1968, BC gave the PCs a goose egg. I have a tough time believing that will happen anytime soon again.
As for Vancouver, I sometimes miss it, although I enjoy living in Toronto.
This is not the first time people have talked about the Bloc Quebecois vanishing, after all, many said the same thing in 2003 before the sponsorship scandal erupted, yet each time there is talk of the Bloc Quebecois' demise, they somehow come right back.
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geovani
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Do you really think the NDP has a shot at regaining power in BC?
Opinionator777 - I am not too up on the BC scene, although I have heard there is a chance of the NDP winning. There has only been one poll done since the carbon tax was introduced so too early to tell. I hope the NDP doesn't get back in.
You Uncle is glad to see this analysis Miles. The Liberals have simply ceased to be a national party, and changing leaders isn't going to fix that.
The first signs are not good - talking about holding the leadership convention in a "more central location" and somehow hanging onto the notion that only Liberals represent Canada and Canadian values.
And I do realize that Vancouver is almost as far west as you can go - causing some delegates travel problems. But in the 21st century balloting need not require every delegate be physically present. On the other hand, it might be good for some Liberals to try and find out first hand how they have not only lost seats in western Canada - but in huge swaths have become totally irrelevant, finishing a distant third or even fourth in many ridings.
Anonymous - I agree that changing leaders won't solve the problem alone and I think Liberals who think a saviour will come along to lead them to the promise land are deluding themselves.
You are right that they did poorly in Western Canada. Trudeau could write it off since he would sweep Quebec, but that was before the Bloc Quebecois existed and Chretien swept Ontario, but that was when the right was divided, the NDP was polling in the single digits not 15-20% like they normally do and the Greens were non-existent. Without the ability to sweep any province, they need to win in the West even more so. I think Paul Martin understood this which is why he focused more on the West than previous Liberal leaders and I should note in both elections he gained seats in BC despite losing them in Ontario and Quebec.
I should also note that it is not just the West where they struggle in, they got clobbered in Rural Ontario as well. Outside of the GTA, they only won 6 seats in Ontario and in fact they were in the teens percentage wise in a few ridings just an hour north of Toronto, so I believe they also have some re-building to do here in Ontario as well. Only Toronto proper went solidly Liberal, while the 905 suburbs split pretty equally, the non-GTA parts of Southern Ontario went mostly Conservative while Northern Ontario went mostly NDP.
As for location, I agree placing it in Toronto or Montreal is a bad idea, but how about Winnipeg instead of Vancouver. It is pretty close to the middle of Canada, yet still in the West. Also even here in Ontario, Kitchener might not be a bad location considering it went Liberal not too long ago, but all four ridings went Conservative this past election. Its close to Toronto yet outside of the Liberal strongholds.
Winnipeg would be an inspired choice. It's the heart of a province without a lot of resource riches which, none the less continues to grow, have a low rate of unemployment and which manages to balance its books whether the provincial government is left or right.
My point in saying all that is that I believe the Liberal party needs to completely re-think its policies, so yes, go there not just to party - but to see how a city that many folks overlook gets things done.
Anonymous - It is true that Manitoba has been successful at balancing its budget even under an NDP government. Also many people here voted NDP last provincial election but Conservative federally so those are certainly not highly ideological types and ones the Liberals could certainly get.
I agree the Liberals need to look over all the policies as any party should do on a regular basis. It also needs to get rid of the idea of any sacred cows and instead discuss everything. At the same time that doesn't mean it cannot or shouldn't take some unpopular policies, it simply has to explain them better and also there should be a clear objective they want to achieve which most Canadians do. Free Trade, Charter of Rights and Freedoms, Bilingualism, abolishing the death penalty, spending cuts in the 90s to balance the budget were all not overly popular at the time, but they were properly explained and eventually over time the public came around to supporting them.
As inspired as Winnipeg might have been as choice for a leadership convention, I guess it's just too west for the Liberals.
Now they are floating Ottawa and Quebec City trial baloons.
Ottawa would be just plain dumb, and Quebec City - although politically appealing in an attempt to spread the Liberal brand beyond Montreal - would make a total mockery of the suggestion that a convention shouldn't be held in Vancouver because, "it's too far for delegates to travel." And Quebec City isn't - too far to travel?
One would hope that someone in the Liberal party would see how two-faced it would be to choose Quebec City over Vancouver - but one also worries that among the higher ups in the Liberal party - they wouldn't get that.
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