US Election Predictions
Much as I did with the Canadian election, I thought I would give the various scenarios on what I think might happen in the US election in just over a week. So below is where I think each state stands and at the bottom will give the total electoral votes
Safe Obama
Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Illinois
Michigan
Maine*
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Total EV: 206
* 2 Electoral Votes for the state of Maine as a whole and 1 for Maine 1.
Likely Obama
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Maine*
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Total EV: 277 (safe Obama + Likely Obama)
* All four electoral votes for Maine not just three.
Toss-Up
Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Ohio
North Carolina
Florida
Total EV: McCain 261, Obama 364 (safe + likely + toss-up for each candidate)
Likely McCain
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
West Virgina
Georgia
Total EV: 174 (safe McCain + likely McCain)
Safe McCain
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Arizona
Wyoming
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
Louisiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina
Total EV: 137
With eight days to go, things can still change, but at the moment, Obama simply needs to win all the states in the safe and likely in order to win the White House, whereas McCain would have to win all the safe, likely, and toss-ups, plus one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Virgina, or two of the other listed toss-ups. So a McCain win is still possible, but not likely. The biggest factor in determining who wins will be voter turnout. A high turnout should favour Obama as he has around 90% support in the African-American community while a solid lead amongst the under 30 age group and both these demographics have traditionally had much lower voter turnouts than the general population. On the other hand a low voter turnout could allow McCain to win as he is strong amongst older population, white, male, above average income, rural/suburban, and regular church goers. The other important factor for McCain is the Evangelical vote. This group heavily favours the Republicans and the increased turnout in 2004 vs. 2000 amongst this group played a strong role in Bush's better showing in 2004. Many in this group feel McCain is too moderate for them, so a big question is whether their dislike for Obama will be enough to bring them out to the polls or will they simply stay home. Unlike Canada, where this group is quite small, in the US they make up around 25-30% of the population so they are a significant voting bloc that cannot be ignored by the Republicans. The final factor, is are the polls showing the Bradley Effect. This is named after Tom Bradley who lost the governor's race in California in 1982 despite having a lead in the polls. This claims that African-American candidates tend to poll higher than what their real support is as some who are racist and refusing to vote for the candidate simply because of race will lie to the pollsters. I would like to hope this is no longer an issue, but one can never be sure as I still think there is a sizeable portion of the population that feels anyone who isn't white should not be president. True, this group is probably far more likely to vote Republican than Democrat, but if things tighten up this could have an impact. Anyways I will post my actual predictions on the night before the election when the final polls come out.
One final prediction I will make now though, is the US will have a higher voter turnout than Canada had in its most recent election. If this does materialize as I think it will, it will be the first time in a long time that the US has had a higher voter turnout than Canada, despite the fact registering to vote is far more difficult in the US than Canada.
UPDATE:
I am moving Pennsylvania to safe Obama and Colorado to likely Obama, so that makes it 227 electoral votes for safe Obama and 286 electoral votes for likely Obama + safe Obama.
Safe Obama
Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Illinois
Michigan
Maine*
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Total EV: 206
* 2 Electoral Votes for the state of Maine as a whole and 1 for Maine 1.
Likely Obama
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Maine*
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Total EV: 277 (safe Obama + Likely Obama)
* All four electoral votes for Maine not just three.
Toss-Up
Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Ohio
North Carolina
Florida
Total EV: McCain 261, Obama 364 (safe + likely + toss-up for each candidate)
Likely McCain
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
West Virgina
Georgia
Total EV: 174 (safe McCain + likely McCain)
Safe McCain
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Arizona
Wyoming
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
Louisiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina
Total EV: 137
With eight days to go, things can still change, but at the moment, Obama simply needs to win all the states in the safe and likely in order to win the White House, whereas McCain would have to win all the safe, likely, and toss-ups, plus one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Virgina, or two of the other listed toss-ups. So a McCain win is still possible, but not likely. The biggest factor in determining who wins will be voter turnout. A high turnout should favour Obama as he has around 90% support in the African-American community while a solid lead amongst the under 30 age group and both these demographics have traditionally had much lower voter turnouts than the general population. On the other hand a low voter turnout could allow McCain to win as he is strong amongst older population, white, male, above average income, rural/suburban, and regular church goers. The other important factor for McCain is the Evangelical vote. This group heavily favours the Republicans and the increased turnout in 2004 vs. 2000 amongst this group played a strong role in Bush's better showing in 2004. Many in this group feel McCain is too moderate for them, so a big question is whether their dislike for Obama will be enough to bring them out to the polls or will they simply stay home. Unlike Canada, where this group is quite small, in the US they make up around 25-30% of the population so they are a significant voting bloc that cannot be ignored by the Republicans. The final factor, is are the polls showing the Bradley Effect. This is named after Tom Bradley who lost the governor's race in California in 1982 despite having a lead in the polls. This claims that African-American candidates tend to poll higher than what their real support is as some who are racist and refusing to vote for the candidate simply because of race will lie to the pollsters. I would like to hope this is no longer an issue, but one can never be sure as I still think there is a sizeable portion of the population that feels anyone who isn't white should not be president. True, this group is probably far more likely to vote Republican than Democrat, but if things tighten up this could have an impact. Anyways I will post my actual predictions on the night before the election when the final polls come out.
One final prediction I will make now though, is the US will have a higher voter turnout than Canada had in its most recent election. If this does materialize as I think it will, it will be the first time in a long time that the US has had a higher voter turnout than Canada, despite the fact registering to vote is far more difficult in the US than Canada.
UPDATE:
I am moving Pennsylvania to safe Obama and Colorado to likely Obama, so that makes it 227 electoral votes for safe Obama and 286 electoral votes for likely Obama + safe Obama.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:07 PM
10 Comments:
The only state I'd change on your very complete list is Colorado. I haven't seen any poll (regardless of slant) showing a McCain lead since the democratic convention. Even after the Republican Palin Convention, a couple showed a tie even as others showed an Obama lead even then.
So I'd put Colorado in the likely Obama category rather than toss-up.
But other than that minor quibble, I'd have to say I'd match you practically state for state, even the sub-categories for each.
Joseph - Colorado could really go in either the toss up or likely Obama. Most polls show Obama ahead, but still within the margin of error in many cases. I only put it in the too close to call since the demographic that votes Democrat tends to have a lower voter turnout than the one that usually votes Republican, still I agree Obama has a better chance at winning there than McCain, but it is close either way.
As for the Colorado poll issue, I do think the convention bounce there would be less pronounced than in many other states. The choice of Palin there probably didn't do as much as in many other swing states (such as Ohio, Virginia and Florida) since there aren't as many social conservatives there as in any of the swing states east of 100W (except for New Hampshire). Overall they tend to be more libertarian there.
Anonymous - I agree Colorado like much of the other Mountain West states tends to be more libertarian than social conservative, the one exception being the Colorado Springs area which is actually a hotbed for Evangelism, but the rest of the state is more libertarian. The state essentially breaks down like this.
Denver and Boulder are both liberal strongholds and I expect Obama will win by a landslide in both cities.
Denver Suburbs are moderate and can go either way so they will likely back the winner. In many ways they are sort of like the Lower Mainland suburbs or 905 belt albeit a bit more conservative, but relative to the general population more or less the same as Canada is a more liberal country on the whole.
Mountain West is a mixture of liberalism and libertarianism. Areas with large ski resorts tend to be quite liberal due to the international tourists and the outside visitors. Much like Banff and Jasper where the Tories got only 25% in 2006, yet won both ridings with over 70% due to their strength elsewhere in the ridings. The other areas where the bulk of the population lives is libertarian.
Southern Colorado has a large Latino community so with Obama's massive lead amongst this group he should do well in this area.
Eastern Colorado is very conservative much like neighbouring Nebraska and Kansas but its the least populated part of the state.
So it really comes down to how the Denver suburbs vote. In 2004 Bush narrowly won those, but in the mid-term elections, the Democrats finished ahead, so this will likely be what determines who carries the state.
Much like in Canada, usually the suburbs determine who wins the state, not the rural areas (which are more conservative) or large cities (which are more liberal).
In spite of Bush winning in 2004, the state has tended quite Democratic since. It elected a Democratic Senator in 2004, and a Democratic governor by a fair margin in 2006. I have yet to see McCain ahead in any poll and most pundits seem to agree that Colorado will go blue.
BC Tory - I agree Colorado has trended quite Democrat over the last few years, although ironically the state has been a Republican stronghold until very recently. If anything it is more libertarian than conservative and that probably is what is hurting the Republicans. I would also place Colorado in the likely Obama column today anyways. I should note CNN changed it from toss-up to likely Obama today.
Notice Montana and North Dakota have been surprisingly competitive (Polls have them almost tied but due to small samples I'd say McCain still has the edge in them) - North Dakota is more surprising since it is more socially conservative than Montana or most other states west of 100W.
Also Indiana flipped to toss-up according to CNN, that probably has to do with the more liberal northwestern part (plus Indianapolis) going heavily Obama, since the rural parts of the state are very socially conservative.
Anonymous - I am especially surprised about North Dakota being competitive as Bush won this by over 20% and it is pretty rural and largely white, which are both demographics that tend to go Republican. Montana did elect a Democrat senator in the midterm elections and their governor Brian Schweitzer has very high approval ratings so while I highly doubt Obama would carry the state, I am not surprised it is a lot tighter than last time around. In the case of Indiana, I think the fact they have a very unpopular Republican governor, Evan Bayh maybe part of the reason for this. Indianapolis only narrowly went for Kerry in 2004, so it is quite conservative when you consider its size. You are right though that the rural areas are solidly conservative and I don't expect that change. My guess is the Democrat gains are not just in the Northwestern part, but even the Northeastern part around Fort Wayne and South Bend since although those areas went for Bush in 2004, they tend to be more moderate Republicans than areas further south. Those are also blue collar areas where they have been many job losses, never mind they have a large African-American population so a higher turnout by this group would help Obama too.
Looking at recent polls, Arizona seems to be increasingly competitive as well. CNN just moved it to leaning McCain (and moved North Dakota to toss-up, although the small samples I think are skewing polls there). Arizona isn't exactly surprising, since if hometown guy McCain was not the GOP candidate, it would be at least a toss-up due to the huge population of Hispanics and former California residents, similar to Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. It isn't exactly a hotbed for social conservatism anymore.
Anonymous - I will admit Arizona is a bit of a surprise, although you are probably right about the large Latino population who McCain initially had some support about until he flip flopped on immigration reform and a number of other issues. Also Arizona is one of the most heavily urbanized states too when you consider much of the rural areas are not suitable for human habitat and generally the Democrats are stronger in the more heavily urbanized states than more rural ones. Still I would be very surprised if McCain actually loses Arizona. As for North Dakota, that is kind of surprising considering Bush won by over 20%, still it is possible that Obama could win here. Interestingly enough the one group that could have an impact here is the American Indians as they tend to vote heavily Democrat as well, but like the African-American community have in the past had a low voter turnout. I believe all the counties in North Dakota Kerry won in 2004 had an American Indian majority.
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