Live Blogging US Election

In less than 20 minutes, the first polls will close in several states. We have a few early polls in Kentucky and Indiana, but way too early to make any predictions. McCain is doing well in Kentucky, but Obama is doing surprisingly strong in Indiana and this is without any of the counties that voted for Kerry in 2004 reporting. The big states to watch are Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. If Obama wins only 2 of those, that should be enough to put him into the white house. If he wins only one, then Colorado and Nevada will become crucial in determining who becomes president. The first states to close are Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, Kentucky, and Indiana. I expect them to call it pretty early in South Carolina and Kentucky for McCain while Vermont for Obama. I doubt they will call Indiana right away while Georgia leans McCain and Virginia leans Obama so depending on whether they call those right away or wait may be our first signs of what is to come. I plan to sign off at midnight at which point I hope Obama has won. I doubt he will win before 11:00 as he won't have enough electoral votes until the West Coast states close, but hopefully once Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii close, this will put him over the top. Alaska is largely irrelevant in the presidential election, although it could be pivotal in the senate as this could decide whether the Democrats get a filibuster proof senate or not. Unfortunately it closes at 1:00 AM which is too late for me to stay up so I will have more on the results tomorrow.

7:00 PM EST

So far CNN has projected that Obama will win Vermont and McCain will win Kentucky so no surprise here. At 7:30 Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina close. I doubt they will call North Carolina or Ohio immediately and maybe West Virginia for McCain, but all of them are probably too close to call. I have also seen the first exit polls and things are looking good in Indiana and Virginia so far, although I want to see if the results follow. Also Kerry only won four counties in Indiana last time around, but this time around there seems to be a lot more blue counties than in the past, which is good a sign.

7:30 PST

No more calls, although no surprise. At 8:00, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Tennesse, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, and Oklahoma. I expect Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC to go for Obama, while Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma for McCain. If they call Pennsylvania for Obama, this will be very good news.

Update: John McCain carries South Carolina as expected. Also, in Indiana McCain is ahead, but if you look at what counties votes for in 2004 and what they are going now, things are looking good for Obama. He is competitive in rural Indiana which went solidly Bush in 2004 and the Chicago suburbs still haven't reported where the Democrats are strongest in the state.

8:00 PM PST

Now 77 Electoral votes for Obama to 34 EV for McCain however, none of them so far have been surprises. All were states that were considered either safe Obama or safe McCain.

Update: NBC has projected New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Obama so this looks good. CNN is always one of the more cautious than the other networks.

Update: CNN calls both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Obama, so at this point McCain absolutely needs to win states such as Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Other than Nevada, he loses any of those and that is assuming he doesn't lose Indiana, he is likely toast. Also the Democrats pick up both North Carolina and Virginia in the senate. At 9:00 several states close including some key ones. I expect Obama to easily take New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, probably Wisconsin and Minnesota right away and possibly even New Mexico. Colorado probably won't be called right away. McCain should take Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas. While North Dakota is probably too close to call while Arizona might be called for McCain.

9:00 PM EST

Obama wins New York and Rhode Island as expected, but also takes Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota which went narrowly for Kerry. McCain is projected to win Wyoming which is no surprise, but North Dakota was called right away for him which is surprise. Although I expected McCain to win this, not as decisively as he did.

UPDATE: CNN projects Georgia will go for McCain which is not a total surprise. Although I had hoped Obama would pull off an upset, it seemed a bit of a long shot.

BIG UPDATE: Barack Obama wins Ohio. I think with this win, it is mathematically impossible for McCain to win, even he takes Virginia and Florida. Now is time to watch just how badly Obama beats McCain.

UPDATE: Obama also picks up New Mexico. No real surprise, but nice to see another pick-up. In fact Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii are the only states Kerry won that have not been called for Obama and they have not closed so he will almost certainly win all the states Kerry did.

Up next is Iowa, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. McCain should win Utah, maybe Montana, Obama should win Iowa, while Nevada is another key state although with Ohio now going Obama, it probably won't matter at this point.

10:00PM PST

Obama wins Iowa, while McCain wins Utah. So far Obama has now won every state that either Gore or Kerry won in the last two elections plus Ohio. Iowa is also a big victory in the sense it is a fairly rural and predominately white state which is generally a demographic that goes Republican. At 11:00 PST, it will likely be declared that Obama will become the 44th president of the United States as based on the states they have already called + California, Washington, Oregon + Hawaii would put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold even if McCain somehow manages to win Virginia, Colorado, and Florida (all which look unlikely at this point). Even Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina are still in play, although I think McCain might narrowly win them. Missouri looks the most promising as most of the urban results haven't come in while Indiana looks like Obama will just fall short, but the fact he was that close to winning a supposedly solid red state is big news.

UPDATE: CNN projects Obama will win Virginia, so it is definitely over. It is only waiting for the final call which should be minutes away.

CNN Predicts Obama will become the 44th president of the United States!! I will sign off and have more on this tomorrow.