McKenna out, Manley maybe, Leblanc in
Already the leadership race is starting to shape up. Frank McKenna announced yesterday he would not run for the Liberal leadership race. While I think his position is perfectly understandable and I fully respect it, I think he would have been exactly the type we need to re-build. He would have little difficulty raising the money necessary, he was a very popular premier in New Brunswick and considering the results in New Brunswick were not far off the national results, this is probably telling about his general appeal. He has a strong business background which in times of economic crisis like right now is very important. He is also a Blue Liberal so he could appeal to many soft Tory votes, which matter just as much as the Green and NDP votes. In areas such as the 905 belt here in Ontario or many of the Lower Mainland suburbs such as the North Shore and Richmond, the party will regain these seats by planting itself firmly in the centre, not by moving to the left. That being said, if there is anyone happy about this announcement, it is probably the six Conservative MPs in New Brunswick as three of them would likely lose their seats and the other three would face much tougher battles than they did this time around.
John Manley is also testing the waters but still has not said whether he will run or not. At this point I don't want to endorse anyone until I see the full slate, but certainly Manley is one I could support. Like McKenna he is a centrist too and also has strong economic credentials. Right now, the economy is the biggest issue for Canadians so having someone with strong economic credentials is important. Now it is quite possible we will be out of the recession by the time of the next election, however, if we do go into deficit, I don't have much confidence in the Harper government pulling us out of it, so that is why is all the more important to choose someone who will be able to balance the budget. As for his chances, it is tough to say. He is popular amongst some, but his somewhat hawkish stances may make him a tough sell amongst those on the left of the party. Also his Afghanistan report may make some feel he is too cozy with the Tories. However, considering that minority governments are likely to be the norm, not the exception in the forseeable future, I think being able reach across the aisle and cooperate with other parties is a good thing for the country.
Dominic Leblanc has declared he intends to run. At only 40 years old, he is young enough that he will be able to stay on even if we don't win the next election. Although our goal must be to win the next election, having someone who can re-build the party is also equally important. I also so far like his talk about moving the party back to the centre and appealing to the middle class. He also comes from a rural riding, which is becoming an increasingly rare for the Liberals and so he probably understands better than some the issues that concern Rural Canadians and what is needed to win back the support in those areas. He also comes from New Brunswick, which was the Tories strongest province in Atlantic Canada and one where we lost a lot of ground (we lost 3 seats, which is 30% of the seats in the province). I highly doubt he will win it, but this will at least raise his profile and improve his chances in any future run. He is young enough that regardless of the results in the next few elections, he will get another chance to run again since even if we win and are in power for 10 years, he will still be young enough to run again.
I will have more on the cabinet appointments tomorrow. My only hopes which may or may not come true are as follows. I hope he adds more women to his cabinet. I hope that we get more GTA cabinet ministers considering they did make gains in the 905 belt. In addition to Lisa Raitt, I think either Bob Dechert or Peter Kent should be made cabinet ministers as there ridings are close to Toronto, more urban, and more multicultural, whereas the other ridings they won maybe in the GTA, but are far enough removed from Toronto that their issues are quite different (i.e. Oakville, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, and Halton) and they are also ridings that are over 80% white as well, so hardly reprensentative of the GTA. Thornhill and Mississauga-Erindale on the other hand have much higher population densities than the other GTA ridings the Tories won and also are multicultural and diverse. I think Jim Flaherty should be moved out of Finance and instead either Jim Prentice or Lawrence Cannon should get this one. He should stay in cabinet, but get a lower profile position as he clearly is not competent enough to be a senior cabinet minister. Diane Ablonczy and James Moore both should get cabinet posts unlike last time around. Since appointing Diane Ablonczy would mean four cabinet members from Calgary if you include the PM, I think Jason Kenney should be dropped from cabinet. He maybe good for the party, but he has little to offer the country. If any senators are appointed to be cabinet members, they need to be from Newfoundland & Labrador as that is the only province they were shut out of. I also oppose appointing any defectors to cabinet. If one wishes to cross the floor, I respect that right, but they should not go into cabinet until they have earned it. As much as I hate to see any Liberals defect to the Tories, I have been consistent in my view of supporting the right of MPs to cross the floor and will not change that view regardless of who it benefits.
John Manley is also testing the waters but still has not said whether he will run or not. At this point I don't want to endorse anyone until I see the full slate, but certainly Manley is one I could support. Like McKenna he is a centrist too and also has strong economic credentials. Right now, the economy is the biggest issue for Canadians so having someone with strong economic credentials is important. Now it is quite possible we will be out of the recession by the time of the next election, however, if we do go into deficit, I don't have much confidence in the Harper government pulling us out of it, so that is why is all the more important to choose someone who will be able to balance the budget. As for his chances, it is tough to say. He is popular amongst some, but his somewhat hawkish stances may make him a tough sell amongst those on the left of the party. Also his Afghanistan report may make some feel he is too cozy with the Tories. However, considering that minority governments are likely to be the norm, not the exception in the forseeable future, I think being able reach across the aisle and cooperate with other parties is a good thing for the country.
Dominic Leblanc has declared he intends to run. At only 40 years old, he is young enough that he will be able to stay on even if we don't win the next election. Although our goal must be to win the next election, having someone who can re-build the party is also equally important. I also so far like his talk about moving the party back to the centre and appealing to the middle class. He also comes from a rural riding, which is becoming an increasingly rare for the Liberals and so he probably understands better than some the issues that concern Rural Canadians and what is needed to win back the support in those areas. He also comes from New Brunswick, which was the Tories strongest province in Atlantic Canada and one where we lost a lot of ground (we lost 3 seats, which is 30% of the seats in the province). I highly doubt he will win it, but this will at least raise his profile and improve his chances in any future run. He is young enough that regardless of the results in the next few elections, he will get another chance to run again since even if we win and are in power for 10 years, he will still be young enough to run again.
I will have more on the cabinet appointments tomorrow. My only hopes which may or may not come true are as follows. I hope he adds more women to his cabinet. I hope that we get more GTA cabinet ministers considering they did make gains in the 905 belt. In addition to Lisa Raitt, I think either Bob Dechert or Peter Kent should be made cabinet ministers as there ridings are close to Toronto, more urban, and more multicultural, whereas the other ridings they won maybe in the GTA, but are far enough removed from Toronto that their issues are quite different (i.e. Oakville, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, and Halton) and they are also ridings that are over 80% white as well, so hardly reprensentative of the GTA. Thornhill and Mississauga-Erindale on the other hand have much higher population densities than the other GTA ridings the Tories won and also are multicultural and diverse. I think Jim Flaherty should be moved out of Finance and instead either Jim Prentice or Lawrence Cannon should get this one. He should stay in cabinet, but get a lower profile position as he clearly is not competent enough to be a senior cabinet minister. Diane Ablonczy and James Moore both should get cabinet posts unlike last time around. Since appointing Diane Ablonczy would mean four cabinet members from Calgary if you include the PM, I think Jason Kenney should be dropped from cabinet. He maybe good for the party, but he has little to offer the country. If any senators are appointed to be cabinet members, they need to be from Newfoundland & Labrador as that is the only province they were shut out of. I also oppose appointing any defectors to cabinet. If one wishes to cross the floor, I respect that right, but they should not go into cabinet until they have earned it. As much as I hate to see any Liberals defect to the Tories, I have been consistent in my view of supporting the right of MPs to cross the floor and will not change that view regardless of who it benefits.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 6:30 PM
3 Comments:
The Harper cabinet is already Calgary mafia as it is. Bringing Prentice to Finance destroys the credibility the government has in Bay Street.
If Harper wants to clear the decks (unlikely due to his cautious nature), he would have to move either Clement or even Baird into Finance. Both are high-risk, high-reward strategies.
Manley, Leblanc, Ignatieff, I wish McKenna was running too. Looks like you blue liberals are gonna split up your vote rather nicely. I smell Bob Rae or Gerrard Kennedy coming up the middle. Then the Ignatieff people can get all mad and run off and leak shit to the press and trash their leader again.
Mushroom - I think you mean Jim Dinning when you say the Calgary Mafia. Jim Prentice is a former Progressive Conservative so he is one of the more moderate ones despite being from Calgary. As for Clement and Baird, bad idea. In an economic crisis like this, we need people who can work with the various stakeholders whether it be other parliamentarians, other Canadians, and other leaders around the world. The Harris crowd is too much about picking fights and you might be able to get away with that when things are going well, but not during a recession.
Militant Liberal - It is not just a left vs. right thing, it is also what ideas they propose. I think Gerard Kennedy would be a very good leader and I may very well endorse him if he runs. He is about making the party more grassroots and also seems to be able to have a strong appeal beyond our present core supporters. As for Blue Liberal vote splitting, that is largely irrelevant as we have multiple ballots so if one drops off they will just go to the other. Our convention is not like the general election where whoever gets the most votes win, there is a run-off. Had we used the same method of voting as the general election, Michael Ignatieff would have been leader since he came in first on the first ballot and Gerard Kennedy would likely be premier of Ontario not involved in federal politics as he came first in the 1996 Ontario Liberal leadership race.
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