US Election predictions
# 1
#2
#3
#4
#5
With approximately 24 hours until the first polls close, I am now going to make my predictions. Rather than listing them off I thought I would show it visually and give an explanation below. Although it is still technically possible McCain could win the electoral vote, he would have to win every state he is within 5 points which seems extremely unlikely. So in summary, an Obama win is pretty much close to a certainty. In terms of the popular vote, my predictions are:
#2
#3
#4
#5
With approximately 24 hours until the first polls close, I am now going to make my predictions. Rather than listing them off I thought I would show it visually and give an explanation below. Although it is still technically possible McCain could win the electoral vote, he would have to win every state he is within 5 points which seems extremely unlikely. So in summary, an Obama win is pretty much close to a certainty. In terms of the popular vote, my predictions are:Obama 52%
McCain 47%
Other 1%
Map #5 above (sorry for the confusion, but I am not good with computer graphics) is what I think is most likely to happen. Last time I around, I got only two states wrong (I predicted Bush would win Wisconsin while Kerry would win Ohio, so Bush still would have won), so lets see if I can beat that this time around. This would be 338 electoral votes for Obama to 200 electoral votes for McCain.
Map#4 is the more optimistic scenario for Obama where he would win 378 EV to McCain's 160 EV. This one is quite plausible if there is a strong turnout amongst younger voters, African-Americans, and Latinos and likewise by the same token a lower turnout that expected amongst White Evangelical voters.
Map#3 is the dream scenario. I don't actually expect Obama to win this type of landslide, but essentially, any blue state here, he has at least a slim chance at winning while the red states, I am so confident will go McCain, I would be willing to bet $100 on each one of them. In this case Obama would get 411 EV vs. McCain's 127 EV.
Map#2 is the nightmare scenario where McCain would get 299 EV vs. Obama's 239 EV. Although all the red states are ones I could theoretically see McCain winning, I doubt this scenario will play about.
Map#1 is the most plausible scenario for a McCain win, which would involve only two states changing hands, Obama gaining Iowa and New Mexico, but McCain holding everything else Bush won in 2004 which would give him 274 EV to Obama's 264 EV. Were Nevada to go Democrat in this case, we would have a tie, however since both the senate and congress will likely be Democrat controlled, Obama would therefore become president.
In terms of the senate, I haven't analyzed all the races closely, so my predictions are as follows
56 Democrats
42 Republicans
2 Independents (Liebermann and Sanders)
So although the Democrats would gain in the senate, it would still put them short of filibuster proof majority, albeit since party discipline is much weaker than here in Canada, they could pass a filibuster if they could get two moderate Republicans to support them on any given bill which is much easier to do than trying to get nine. Ironically if McCain becomes president, the Democrats would gain one more senator as the governor, which is a Democrat would then appoint the replacement. In the case of Obama, Illinois has a Democrat governor so no change here.
In the case of the house, I predict a net gain of 5 seats for the Democrats. Most of the pick-ups will likely be in open seats in the West and Northeast where many Republicans from the days when the party was more moderate will become vulnerable as much of that area has shifted towards the Democrats. Likewise, I predict the Republicans will pick up a few Democrat congressional districts as it is extremely rare (not even in 1994 Republican Revolution) for all the losses to occur on one side. Mostly in the South where some Democrats have won due to incumbency but those areas are now Republican unlike in the past. Also, there were a few districts (i.e. Mark Foley's in Florida and Tom DeLay's in Texas) that are solidly Republican and were only lost due to corruption charges for the sitting or retiring incumbent, so a few of those should swing back to the Republicans.
The case of the governors and state legislatures, I predict Democrat gains as well and this is actually more important than most think. In 2010, there will be the new census and therefore re-districting for the congressional districts will occur. This means that in states that are heavily gerrymandered in favour of the Republicans, they can be re-distributed in favour of the Democrats or preferably in a neutral fashion as I oppose gerrymandering regardless of who it favours.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 3:20 PM
2 Comments:
Those seem pretty much correct, and map #5 seems right. I think Indiana, North Carolina and Florida will be the closest states - each decided by less than 0.5%.
Map #4 seems quite possible as well, although North Dakota probably requires the Obama dream scenario. Based on polling with single-digit McCain leads, Arkansas, South Dakota, Nebraska-02 (the Omaha district) and perhaps even South Carolina might be in play in a highly unlikely dream scenario for Obama, which equals the most optimistic potential of 429-109.
The GOP dream scenario is pretty much unlikely but seems accurate as well, although Obama has a lead in New Mexico similar to Pennsylvania, and Maine-01 could swing in that as well, so that would be 305-233. (No matter what, Obama will at least pick up Iowa - he is surprisingly popular there that he would have likely won easily there against Bush in 2004, while Kerry would be in a bigger struggle against McCain now there.) Map #1 goes against GOP strategists but seems more accurate than their PA pickups while losing Nevada and Colorado.
I agree Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida will probably be close although I don't want to speculate on the numbers as a lot depends on turnout. In the case of North Carolina, it will only be close if there is a high turnout amongst the African-American community where the Democrats are strong amongst as I expect even if Obama carries the state, McCain will get at least 60% if not 2/3 of the white vote. Indiana will probably depend a lot on how the northern parts go as manufacturing is quite strong in this area and you have a lot of lost jobs at the same time Obama has struggled to connect with many white blue collar workers. Florida has a large Latino and seniors community and the seniors should favour the Republicans while the Latinos will split with the Cubans going mainly Republican and Puerto Ricans and Dominicans going Democrat.
Arkansas is possible but I see as pretty remote and South Dakota for whatever reason has McCain far ahead. In the case of Nebraska, there hasn't been much polling on the districts so you may be right here. The Western congressional district is very conservative and the Republicans frequently get over 75% there. South Carolina has a large African-American community which is good for Obama, but unlike neighbouring Georgia or North Carolina, no large metropolitan areas as well as few transposed Northeasterners so the white vote is likely to go over 75% McCain possibly upwards of 80% making a Democrat win there pretty unlikely. In both Georgia and North Carolina, Obama on the other hand could easily get over 1/3 of the white vote and that combined with 90%+ amongst the African-American community could put him over the top.
As for Maine 1, it is somewhat more libertarian, but with Obama having a double digit lead in the state, I cannot see the Republicans winning Maine 1 as the differences within the state are quite small. For example in 2004, both Kerry and Bush got over 40% in every single county in Maine, so far less polarized than many other states.
Pennsylvania seems pretty unlikely as Philadelphia is solidly Democrat and the suburbs have been trending Democrat over the past 15 years and there is little reason to suggest the Republicans will even come within 10 points here. Pittsburgh area as well as the Coal valley in the Northeast could be somewhat more competitive due to the large white blue collar workers, although I suspect Obama will still win here despite the fact both areas strongly backed Hilary Clinton in the primaries. There are a small number of Hilary Clinton supporters that will vote McCain, but the vast majority will vote for Obama as despite their differences, Hilary Clinton has far more in common with Obama than McCain.
New Mexico has a large Latino population who Bush made inroads amongst and McCain was initially competitive amongst, but now Obama has a 2 to 1 lead amongst this grou and they make up over 40% of the state's population. Nevada and Colorado also too have a large Latino population at around 20% in each case.
Iowa is rather an odd state as it is quite rural and the cities it has are all mid-sized cities (in Canadian terms similiar to London, St. Catharines, Barrie, Brantford, and Kitchener, otherwise places that the Conservatives either won or were competitive in the last federal election) as well as it is over 95% white, so logic would suggest it would be a red state, yet for whatever reason Obama has a big lead there, even more so than some states that are far more urban and have larger African-American and Latino communities.
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