US politics going forward

Now that the US election is over, the hard work begins on where to go. In the case of president elect Barack Obama, he enters office under probably the worse conditions any president has since FDR, so he has a very difficult task ahead. Likewise expectations of him are very high. So the question becomes how will he satisfy all the groups who supported him and achieve his promises. With the economic downturn, his goal should be to achieve his promises by 2016, not necessarily in his first term as the next two years will likely be focused simply on getting out of the crisis the US economy faces. What he needs to do is at least get started on his promises once the economy begins to recover which in all likelihood will happen before 2012. In addition he needs to have a strong team and show strong competence during the recession. While most people generally don't take too kindly to their political leaders during a recession, that is not always the case. FDR governed during the great depression and was re-elected so the main thing is that Obama is able to show he is effectively dealing with the crisis. Also, he can always recover from low approval ratings if the economy starts to rebound. Reagan in 1982 and Clinton in 1994 both faced low approval ratings and in the case of Clinton in 1994, the Democrats suffered badly in midterm elections. Yet in both cases, the above leaders went on to be re-elected. Since things will be tough in the next few years, it wouldn't surprise me if the Republicans make gains in the 2010 midterm elections, which is why it was so important for the Democrats to make gains in 2008 so they can at least maintain control of both houses even if it is weaker than it currently is. He also needs to stick close to the centre. The areas Obama gained in are mostly moderate areas, not liberal ones so if he is too liberal, he will likely go the way Jimmy Carter did in 1980. However, I think after being in the wilderness for many years and having more losses than wins in the past 25 years, the Democrats have learned the dangers of being too liberal and therefore will govern close to the centre.

For the Republicans, it is a very different scenario. The once dominate GOP has been shattered and the strong coalition that Reagan built in the 80s has been blown apart. The question becomes where does the party go in order to regain its trust with the electorate. The GOP will some day return to power as no party ever stays in power forever, but it still remains to seen whether it will be soon or many years away. Many Republicans are already claiming the party was too moderate and needs to move even further to the right. This would be a completely dumb idea as most of the areas the party lost are moderate areas, not hardcore conservative ones. The reality is that many Americans are sick and tired of politics of division and governing by ideology rather than pragmatism. They want a party with principles, but one that can also deliver results and one that tries to unite people, not pit group against group. They would be best to focus more on the fiscal conservatism rather than social conservatism as this is very divisive and is not a major issue for most people asides from the white Evangelicals who are a large voting block, but not the majority (and also vote Republican anyways). For one thing, advocating balanced budgets and keeping spending under control might be a smart start as these are conservative principles that were widely discarded by the Bush administration. And these are ones that actually sell amongst the public. Either way, the good thing about the last election is it was a final nail in the coffin to ideological conservatism. The fact that one of the most conservative countries in the Western World turned its back on it should be a sign to all leaders in the democratic world that ideological conservatism is bound for failure. The Conservative Party in Canada would be well advised to take note of this, as it seems a large chunk of its members at the convention want to move the party to the right and back to its Reform roots. Likewise the Liberals could learn a lot from the Democrats. Besides better fundraising techniques, our party is too quick to write off certain regions of the country and certain groups when we need to appeal to Canadians from coast to coast not just in Toronto and Montreal. We also need to be a party of unity, not division and I feel some in the Liberals are too quick to label certain parts of the country and segments as un-Canadian who don't vote for them. This is what the Republicans did and we should not follow this route. The reality is if the Democrats can come within three points of winning in Montana and won in many rural counties of Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin, so there is no reason the Liberals cannot win in similiar areas directly north of the border. They simply need to do a better job of appealing to those people. If people see a party as hostile to their region or who they are, they won't even give the party a second look. But if the see the party as caring about them, they will give the party a serious look. And while not all will support it, some will. I will have more on the Canadian political scene in a later post when I get around to posting it.