BC Federal Election Predictions
As someone who lives in BC, I thought I would like BC Tory has done try and predict the outcome for the various BC ridings. I doubt my actual percentages will be perfect, but they are my best guesses. I have divided each riding into solid, which means the party listed is almost guaranteed to win unless some unforseen event happens. Likely means the party listed would win based on the current poll numbers, but not by a huge margin and should the polling numbers shift in BC, the winner would likely be different. Too close to call means it would be really tight race and either of the parties listed could win this based on the current numbers, but should one of those parties gain the momentum, they will likely win. Beside each riding I will list, which parties I think could potentially win the riding. While it is possible other parties could win, I am going based on the campaign so far, so any party not listed for a riding means a huge change would have to occur in the campaign to win the riding.
Abbotsford - Solid Conservative
Con 55% Lib 24% NDP 13% - Edwart Fast Elected
British Columbia Southern Interior - Likely NDP (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 37% Con 32% Lib 21% - Alex Atamanenko Elected
Burnaby-Douglas - Too close to call (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 35% NDP 35% Con 24% - Bill Cunningham Elected (judicial recount conducted)
Burnaby-New Westminster - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 36% NDP 34% Con 24% - Mary Pynenburg Elected
Cariboo-Prince George - Solid Conservative
Con 42% NDP 28% Lib 17% - Dick Harris Re-elected
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - Solid Conservative
Con 51% NDP 21% Lib 16% - Chuck Strahl Re-elected
Delta-Richmond East - Solid Conservative
Con 43% Lib 37% NDP 13% - John Cummins re-elected
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 33% NDP 30% Con 26% - Keith Martin re-elected
Fleetwood-Port Kells - (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 33% Con 31% NDP 27% - Brenda Locke elected
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - Solid Conservative
Con 37% Lib 32% NDP 25% - Betty Hinton re-elected
Kelowna-Lake Country - Solid Conservative
Con 42% Lib 32% NDP 16% - Ronald Cannan elected
Kootenay-Columbia - Solid Conservative
Con 48% NDP 28% Lib 15% - Jim Abbott re-elected
Langley - Solid Conservative
Con 45% Lib 26% NDP 17% - Mark Warawa re-elected
Nanaimo-Alberni - Likely Conservative (Conservative/NDP)
Con 36% NDP 34% Lib 21% - James Lunney re-elected
Nanaimo-Cowichan - Solid NDP
NDP 45% Con 29% Lib 19% - Jean Crowder re-elected
Newton-North Delta - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP/Conservative)
Lib 38% NDP 31% Con 24% - Sukh Dhaliwal elected
New Westminster-Coquitlam - Too close to call (NDP/Liberal/Conservative)
NDP 33% Lib 33% Con 28% - Dawn Black elected (Judicial recount conducted)
North Vancouver - likely Liberal (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 44% Con 33% NDP 14% - Don Bell re-elected
Okanagan-Coquihalla - solid Conservative
Con 47% Lib 25% NDP 19% - Stockwell Day re-elected
Okanagan-Shuswap - solid Conservative
Con 40% Lib 28% NDP 26% - Colin Mayes elected
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - likely Conservative (Conservative/NDP)
Con 35% NDP 34% Lib 23% - Randy Kamp re-elected
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam - solid Conservative
Con 37% Lib 31% NDP 23% - James Moore re-elected
Prince George-Peace River - solid Conservative
Con 56% NDP 21% Lib 11% - Jay Hill re-elected
Richmond - solid Liberal
Lib 50% Con 31% NDP 14% - Raymond Chan re-elected
Saanich-Gulf Islands - likely Conservative (Conservative/Liberal)
Con 32% Lib 28% NDP 25% - Gary Lunn re-elected
Skeena-Bulkley Valley - likely NDP (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 40% Con 30% Lib 18% - Nathan Cullen re-elected
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - likely Conservative (Conservative/Liberal)
Con 39% Lib 38% NDP 15% - Russ Hiebert re-elected
Surrey North - solid NDP
NDP 38% Lib 28% Con 22% - Penny Priddy elected
Vancouver Centre - likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 37% NDP 35% Con 19% - Hedy Fry re-elected
Vancouver East - solid NDP
NDP 60% Lib 22% Con 8% - Libby Davies re-elected
Vancouver Island North - likely Liberal (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 35% Con 32% Lib 22% - Catharine Bell elected
Vancouver-Kingsway - likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 44% NDP 40% Con 13% - David Emerson re-elected
Vancouver-Quadra - solid Liberal
Lib 57% Con 22% NDP 14% - Stephen Owen re-elected
Vancouver South - solid Liberal
Lib 49% NDP 24% Con 22% - Ujjal Dosanjh re-elected
Victoria - likely NDP (NDP/Liberal)
NDP 36% Lib 31% Con 19% - Denise Savoie elected
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - likely Liberal (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 40% Con 27% NDP 20% - Blair Wilson elected
Total: Con 16 seats (31%) Lib 12 seats (33%) NDP 8 seats (28%)
Lets see how close I am here. I won't go through this exercise for other provinces, but I will try to predict all the ridings, which will change hands some time in the New Year.
Abbotsford - Solid Conservative
Con 55% Lib 24% NDP 13% - Edwart Fast Elected
British Columbia Southern Interior - Likely NDP (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 37% Con 32% Lib 21% - Alex Atamanenko Elected
Burnaby-Douglas - Too close to call (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 35% NDP 35% Con 24% - Bill Cunningham Elected (judicial recount conducted)
Burnaby-New Westminster - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 36% NDP 34% Con 24% - Mary Pynenburg Elected
Cariboo-Prince George - Solid Conservative
Con 42% NDP 28% Lib 17% - Dick Harris Re-elected
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - Solid Conservative
Con 51% NDP 21% Lib 16% - Chuck Strahl Re-elected
Delta-Richmond East - Solid Conservative
Con 43% Lib 37% NDP 13% - John Cummins re-elected
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 33% NDP 30% Con 26% - Keith Martin re-elected
Fleetwood-Port Kells - (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 33% Con 31% NDP 27% - Brenda Locke elected
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - Solid Conservative
Con 37% Lib 32% NDP 25% - Betty Hinton re-elected
Kelowna-Lake Country - Solid Conservative
Con 42% Lib 32% NDP 16% - Ronald Cannan elected
Kootenay-Columbia - Solid Conservative
Con 48% NDP 28% Lib 15% - Jim Abbott re-elected
Langley - Solid Conservative
Con 45% Lib 26% NDP 17% - Mark Warawa re-elected
Nanaimo-Alberni - Likely Conservative (Conservative/NDP)
Con 36% NDP 34% Lib 21% - James Lunney re-elected
Nanaimo-Cowichan - Solid NDP
NDP 45% Con 29% Lib 19% - Jean Crowder re-elected
Newton-North Delta - Likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP/Conservative)
Lib 38% NDP 31% Con 24% - Sukh Dhaliwal elected
New Westminster-Coquitlam - Too close to call (NDP/Liberal/Conservative)
NDP 33% Lib 33% Con 28% - Dawn Black elected (Judicial recount conducted)
North Vancouver - likely Liberal (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 44% Con 33% NDP 14% - Don Bell re-elected
Okanagan-Coquihalla - solid Conservative
Con 47% Lib 25% NDP 19% - Stockwell Day re-elected
Okanagan-Shuswap - solid Conservative
Con 40% Lib 28% NDP 26% - Colin Mayes elected
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - likely Conservative (Conservative/NDP)
Con 35% NDP 34% Lib 23% - Randy Kamp re-elected
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam - solid Conservative
Con 37% Lib 31% NDP 23% - James Moore re-elected
Prince George-Peace River - solid Conservative
Con 56% NDP 21% Lib 11% - Jay Hill re-elected
Richmond - solid Liberal
Lib 50% Con 31% NDP 14% - Raymond Chan re-elected
Saanich-Gulf Islands - likely Conservative (Conservative/Liberal)
Con 32% Lib 28% NDP 25% - Gary Lunn re-elected
Skeena-Bulkley Valley - likely NDP (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 40% Con 30% Lib 18% - Nathan Cullen re-elected
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - likely Conservative (Conservative/Liberal)
Con 39% Lib 38% NDP 15% - Russ Hiebert re-elected
Surrey North - solid NDP
NDP 38% Lib 28% Con 22% - Penny Priddy elected
Vancouver Centre - likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 37% NDP 35% Con 19% - Hedy Fry re-elected
Vancouver East - solid NDP
NDP 60% Lib 22% Con 8% - Libby Davies re-elected
Vancouver Island North - likely Liberal (NDP/Conservative)
NDP 35% Con 32% Lib 22% - Catharine Bell elected
Vancouver-Kingsway - likely Liberal (Liberal/NDP)
Lib 44% NDP 40% Con 13% - David Emerson re-elected
Vancouver-Quadra - solid Liberal
Lib 57% Con 22% NDP 14% - Stephen Owen re-elected
Vancouver South - solid Liberal
Lib 49% NDP 24% Con 22% - Ujjal Dosanjh re-elected
Victoria - likely NDP (NDP/Liberal)
NDP 36% Lib 31% Con 19% - Denise Savoie elected
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - likely Liberal (Liberal/Conservative)
Lib 40% Con 27% NDP 20% - Blair Wilson elected
Total: Con 16 seats (31%) Lib 12 seats (33%) NDP 8 seats (28%)
Lets see how close I am here. I won't go through this exercise for other provinces, but I will try to predict all the ridings, which will change hands some time in the New Year.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 10:03 PM
31 Comments:
Miles,
Care to change those predictions given the newest Liberal scandal?
I'll change these predictions when a new set of polls come out. If anything I was being nice to the Tories since all the recent polls show the Liberals 10 points ahead in BC. Wait until election day when your party gets a well deserved ass whopping by the electorate.
Wow, you sure are fully encased in your liberal coccoon aren't you.
No sense debating someone who'll argue that the Earth is flat if that was in the Lib's platform,
so I'll just be back on the 23rd and you can brag all you want about that "ass whopping".
Check out these polls: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2917
http://www.pollara.ca/Library/News/Dec19Poll.html
http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls.asp
http://www.sesresearch.com/main.asp
They all show one thing in common, the Liberals leading in BC and the Tories getting their butts kicked. The total sample of these polls is probably around 3,000 so I would say they are fairly accurate.
Just wait until January 23rd when half of the Tories in BC lose their seats.
"Total: Con 16 seats (31%) Lib 12 seats (33%) NDP 8 seats (28%)
Lets see how close I am here. I won't go through this exercise for other provinces, but I will try to predict all the ridings, which will change hands some time in the New Year."
later...
"Just wait until January 23rd when half of the Tories in BC lose their seats."
Conservatives have 23 seats now. Are you predicting they will get 16 or less than 11½?
Miles,
Do you honestly believe those polls will stay the same untill the 23rd?
Have a gander at Kim Campbell's numbers in the early part of the election. She wasn't looking too bad at all either. Right now a significant percentage of those polled (in some its upwards of 50%) are undecided. So you need to look a little deeper (internals do that) and use sound logic.
Hey, if you think the undecideds are going to break for the Liberals, who are again embroiled in another corruption scandal, it's up to you. But your pointing to last weeks polls as the end all and be all are making you look foolish.
Anyway,
cheerio my left leaning fellow Canadian.
Actually the Tories have 22 seats and several of those were won by rather narrow margins such as British Columbia Souther Interior, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, New Westminster-Coquitlam, and Newton-North Delta. Add to the fact the polls that show the Liberals 10 points ahead in BC, show the gap narrowing in Ontario so I don't think they are totally inaccurate. While some may ask why this is happening and I cannot say for sure, I am guessing Paul Martin's tough talk with the Americans on softwood as anti-Americanism seems to run stronger here than elsewhere. I don't think all undecideds will break to the Liberals, but usually undecideds tend to break along the current polling numbers, i.e. the BC election predictions were pretty accurate even though 15% said they were undecided.
Uhmmmm, then why did Kim Cambell end up with two seats? Her polling numbers were "supposed" to hold during the course of the election.
That was different in Kim Campbell's case as there was a centrist alternative, namely the Liberals, while today there is no centrist alternative. The Reform Party's success, especially in BC, were mostly protest votes, many of whom traditionally voted NDP and likely would have not voted Reform if they had a realistic chance of forming government. Stephen Harper is too right wing for most Canadians and nothing between now and January will change that.
Miles,
Judging from your own polls there's maybe a 2 to 7 point spread between the alleged centrist Liberal party, and this radical out of step fringe party your speaking about. Hey, guess what is out of step with Canadian (versus some South American and Sub Saharan) government values?.......You guessed it, corruption.
That "right wing" ship aint gonna sail this time (at least not with Bahamian flags of convenience).
The point I was making is any right wing party that cannot appeal to centrist voters will not go much above 30%. That is the case with the Conservatives so even if they are close, they are still losing and will lose again. If they choose a moderate leader, then they will win next time, but until Harper goes, they will go nowhere.
I think those totals are right if current polling numbers in BC are to be believed.
I'd also say though that this is the worst possible result for the Tories in BC. I can't see the good guys taking less than 15 in BC.
It could be wishful thinking, but I think the Tories will do a fair bit better than that.
If the Liberals bad luck over the past numbers are reflected in new polls, there should be a Tory rebound.
I would actually say the Liberals would do even better under the current polling numbers since I show them only 2 points ahead rather than 10 points ahead. I gave the Tories 16 seats, which based on BC's history is probably about average for a right wing party. In fact I tried plotting the numbers into past boundaries and the provincial boundaries and in both scenarios the Tories would have won less than half the seats in BC, so in fact the current riding boundaries are quite favourable towards the Tories. For example, Paul Forseth's riding before re-distribution would have gone NDP since it included all of New Westminster and parts of Burnaby, while Capilano-Howe Sound from 1993 would have gone Liberal since it didn't include the Sunshine Coast where the Liberals came in third, while North Island-Powell River, the riding John Duncan originally won in also would have gone NDP since it excludes the Comox Valley where he was the strongest and includes Powell River, where the NDP won quite handily. Likewise provincially, all four of the North Shore ridings would have gone Liberal since the Tories were strongest in the West Vancouver portion of West Vancouver-Garibaldi as opposed to West Vancouver-Capilano, but the Liberals won the sea to sky corridor. Nelson-Creston, West Kootenay-Boundary, North Island, Delta North, Alberni-Qualicum, and Powell River-Sunshine Coast would have all gone NDP had they existed.
You are right Brandon the numbers could change, but if you look more carefully at the polling, the numbers really haven't changed outside the Lower Mainland since last election, it is mostly in the suburbs of Greater Vancouver. There is also a large ethnic community who have historically had a lower voter turnout, so if they show up in a large enough numbers this hsould favour the Liberals. Finally the upswing for the Liberals happened right after Martin started talking tough with the United States over softwood lumber, which seemed to be quite popular in BC as anti-Americanism runs stronger here than any other province.
You just keep whistling past that graveyard, Miles.
Most moderate (not blindingly ideological) Liberals are pretty much conceding a meltdown right now.
Cheers
Most Liberals were conceding a meltdown after the Jean Brault testimony yet they recovered. There will be a brief dip in Liberal numbers, but they will recover as they always do. The fear of Stephen Harper becoming prime-minister hasn't disappeared and won't disappear.
"as they always do".
That, boys and girls, is that lovely Liberal arrogance that will be their downfall.
Have a look around the blogosphere. There's a couple more Lib scandals just around the corner.
Though I suspect that they'll be drowned out by the IT scandal.
Layers upon layers of scandal.
My, what a party to be proud of.
As for the CPC not breaking 30% support. As per your precious SES, yesterday they were at 31 and today they're at 32 (before the IT scancal). Nice trend huh.
No anonymous, it is Conservative arrogance that assumes that if they keep on beating the drum of corruption or re-making themselves, Canadians will someday come over to them. Like George W. Bush, the Reform/Alliance side of the party is convinced they are right and everybody else is wrong and someday Canadians will see the light.
Well I've got news for you guys. Canadians were right on the Iraq war, you guys were wrong.
Canadians were right on same-sex marriage, you guys are wrong.
Canadians were right on BMD, you guys are wrong.
I just wish the Progressive Conservatives still existed so then I wouldn't have to choose between an allegedly corrupt party and an extreme party. Hopefully after this election, the Reform/Alliance elements will leave politics for good and the Old PCs can once again re-build the proud party that helped make Canada a great nation, not a group of people who want to destroy Canada and make it nothing more than the United States of the North.
"Canadians were right on the Iraq war, you guys were wrong."
Come on Miles. YOU were in favour of the war. You're still a Canadian aren't you.
If you feel that way, you should have said "even I was wrong."
Brandon - as you full well know, I am no longer in favour of the war. If you read my first post, I am quite open that I mistakenly did support the war and I will say right here I was wrong. Even I'll admit I make mistakes from time to time.
I've got a great suggestion for the Liberals that may stop the corruption meme:
STOP BEING CORRUPT!
But rather that actually doing the right thing (given that they are ENTITLED to do with our tax dollars as they wish) they attack those shining the spotlight on the corruption.
Check out "Conservative Life" for the latest $400,000 giveaway to a Liberal supporter. Guess what Miles, that money belongs to the people of Canada, its not the Liberals' personal piggy bank.
That story won't see the light of day, because there's only so much Liberal corruption the press can handle.
Pathetic really. The current Liberal regime, and those people that apologize for them......like you Miles.
anonymous - Corruption is really a minor issue for me and outside of Quebec I think most Canadians are sick and tired of hearing about the corruption issue. Notice Harper's numbers decline when he talks about the Sponsorship Scandal, while increase when he talks about his policies. Besides I would rather have a government waste my money on paying off their friends that using that money to fight in Iraq, to fight a court case to deny gay marriage, join BMD etc. Finally most Liberals are not corrupt, only a few bad apples, as all parties have are. I am quite proud to be voting Liberal and I think the Liberals have much to be proud of in their record.
Miles,
With respect to your change of mind about the war in Iraq. I am assuming that you changed your mind once there were no wmd's found.
Did or did not Harper recently use your same line about being in favour of the war then explained his stance now which is the same as yours.
In the Washington Times Harper states:
On Iraq, Harper said: "I would not commit Canadian troops to that country. I must admit great disappointment at the failure to substantiate pre-war intelligence information regarding Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction."
Your quote:
"Brandon - as you full well know, I am no longer in favour of the war. If you read my first post, I am quite open that I mistakenly did support the war and I will say right here I was wrong. Even I'll admit I make mistakes from time to time."
So, by seeing that you and Harper seem to be in agreement on the issue, should you not cut him some slack as you have asked for yourself.
By the way, I am not the same anonymous from previous comments on this particular post. I say that so there is no confusion.
Harper has not publicly said he thinks the war was a mistake. In fact in the Washington Post he still says he supported it, he is just disappointed how it turned out, so there is a big difference.
I do not believe Harper would commit troups to Iraq.
As far a supporting it, I would say he supports or supported an end to tyranny. Don't forget Sadam thumbed his nose at the UN and played games with the inspectors, which in turn was thumbing his nose at the world. What arrogance.
However, having said that. Once again I feel that I have to defend myself and any Christians within the conservative party, since attacking this religeous group seems to be a common theme with you.
There is a seperation of church and state is there not. Correct me if I am wrong. Do we not have a Charter of rights. Do we not live in a pluralistic society.
What about the muslim communities or siekh or the jewish communities. Are they to be ridiculed as well since homosexuality is frowned upon in these groups also.
I can assure you that the topic of same sex marriage or supporting Bush is not the main theme of converstations in my circle.
My focus and I believe others in Canada desire to have corruption cleaned up in our government. The amount of bureacracy in this country is enough to make my head spin. I don't want a bureaucratic system with ten different bureaucrats to funnel through to reach whatever government office I am attempting to access. Student loan is a prime example. As well as endless HRDc programs.
Another reason I support Harper is his stand on GST. As a single mother who now has a disablilty I can assure you that every time I buy anything I feel it in my very thin wallet.
And yes, I am in the group of people who would not benefit from Martin's tax plan since I am now disabled and on a pension. Which means there would be nothing to give me back to me in tax credits. In fact the last time I filed after working and then being disabled student loan took my $2000 income tax return and left me to live on peanuts.
The Liberals have had 12 years to show that they cared about the poor, our health, the first nations, flaws in immigration, the justice system, ending croniism and so on.
Oh, by the way, are you aware that when Paul Martin was Finance Minister that he took away a students right to declare bankruptcy? I can tell you that I am more than aware as I have had the Student Loan branch hound me even though I am now on a pension.
Or how about not being able to find a family doctor in almost 5 years. And wait lists for specialist while your health deteriorates.
So much for Martin being a man of the people and social programs.
While I am on the subject of Social programs. It sickens me to think that families or single parents would have no alternative but to have their children go to state run day cares!
I have watched many, many children from being a child care provider in a non profit agency to a live in nanny to a person watching children in the home of a relative. I've done it all and I can assure you that their are many scenarios where state run daycares would not fit every parent's lifestyle on ideology.
I know I am now on a rant, but these are issues of the little people which all you bloggers seem to have forgotten about.
Quite frankly, I really encourage other average Joes to express their opinions in these forums so that you bloggers can get a real sense of what is happening in this country.
Once again, the other anonymous.
When it comes to funding social programs I wouldn't put much faith in Stephen Harper as he believes almost everything other than the military, immigration, and a few other things belong under provincial jurisdiction. This means what type of programs you get what depend greatly on what province you live in. While I respect the right of provinces to administer social programs, there needs to be national standards, something Harper has argued against in the past.
Well, I'll take that into consideration. I can tell you that the Gordan Campbell government has done a great job in supporting parents and day care. In this province a parent has a choice as to whether children are cared for by family or in daycare. Either way, they are financially supported.
It's called choice and I like that.
The Federal liberals wouldn't allow such choice under their proposal and that stinks.
So, whether Harper ultimately turns social programs to be administered through the provinces that still would not change my mind because the dividing line is who is more honest. The Federal Liberals have proven to be utterly underhanded and I cannot support that.
How is your own riding going to do?
My riding, Vancouver Centre will be a tight race between the NDP and Liberals (Hedy and Svend) although I think Hedy will narrowly win due to the high end condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. As a side note, I absolutely cannot stand Hedy Fry, but under the British parliamentary system it is the party, not the candidate that really matters as MPs have very little power.
Miles, about the your changed opinion on the Iraq war. I think that's the big difference here. If you're all for the war, and you say yeah we should send in the troops and kick Saddam's butt, and after a year or two, go back on your support, there's no consequence. You personally are not affected, you didn't have to commit anything to the war.
Whereas the president, he doesn't have the luxury of what you have. When he commits his forces, there's no turning back, they're playing for all the marbles. Even if the decision is wrong, he has to toe the line to maintain support for the war. It is honestly the presidential thing to do.
And that's what seperates "the evil" George W. Bush and you. The arm chair pundits can blog as much as they want either way about the war, and honestly, there's no consequence on flip flopping on the issue.
Anonymous - I realize the United States cannot pull out easily, but George W. Bush deliberately lied about the intelligence to justify the war, whereas I only knew as much as everyone else. If he deliberately lied about the war, which he did, I have every reason to go after him. This is not acceptable.
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