Conservative Victory Imminent?

Anyone who has followed the recent polls is no doubt aware that the Conservatives are approximately 10 points ahead of the Liberals and on the cusp of a majority government. The question now comes, can the Liberals turn it around in ten days. My response is yes they can, although the odds are not very good. Clearly the Conservatives have run an outstanding campaign, which is why they are where they are. Much of their success has come from the middle class male suburban voters who tend to be centre-right, thus not afraid of the Conservatives, but not hardcore conservatives either. Urban voters, women, youth, and gays & lesbians still for the large part remain terrified of a Harper victory. Below I will give my analysis on the some of the recent events by the two major parties;

Liberals: The Liberals released their red book this week. On the whole it had many policies I liked and despite my general unhappiness with the campaign so far, the Liberals have generally tended to run to the left and govern to the right. Some policies I particularly liked was to stop clawing back a $1 of social assistance for every $1 earned since this creates a welfare trap, which discourages people from trying to seek work. I also liked their policies of making Canada more competitive globally and I agree with Martin that it is not just the United States, but the European Union, China, India, and Brazil who will become major competitors in the 21st century. Their part of banning weapons in space is the part that got the most attention despite being a relatively minor point. It is a noble goal, which I wholeheartedly endorse, but I don't think it will work since the United States under Bush doesn't care what others think and will do what they want. On the attack ads, my comments are posted below, but let me repeat, the military one was despicable and whoever's idea it was should be immediately fired. The other ads were legitimate quotes although the tone was a little overly negative. I was also quite disappointed on their comment that entrenching property rights in the Charter would lead to child labour, weaker environmental laws, and a whole host of doomsday scenarios. I agree in the 30s in the United States property rights were abused, but that is a different era and besides you can write it differently to avoid those problems. Nevertheless I think it is more rhetoric than anything since the Bill of Rights already provides protection for property rights. I think Blue Grit sums it up quite well so I won't go into more detail. I am also quite pleased with how they handled the David Oliver issue in Abbotsford. While these are just allegations, the Liberals not only prevented him from sitting in the Liberal caucus should he win as the Tories did yesterday with Derek Zeisman, they banned him from using anything associated with the Liberals in his campaign, will return the $1.75 for every vote he receives and he will re-adjust their spending limits to 307 candidates instead of 308. The Tories on the other hand only banned Derek Zeisman from sitting in the Tory caucus and were not as quick to act. Still I think this will not help or hinder either party. I must say I find it puzzing David Oliver would try to bribe the NDP candidate not to run since this is the safest conservative riding in BC, so even the combined NDP + Liberal vote still wouldn't be enough to win this. This might have made sense electorally in other ridings, although certainly indefensible still. In Summary, I think the Liberal campaign has been terrible, but I still like the platform and I still don't trust Stephen Harper so I will reluctantly vote Liberal, at the very least to ensure Harper only gets a minority, not a majority. I should finally add I will get to see Paul Martin in person on Monday since he is making a speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade, which I am a member of.

Conservatives: To date they have run a pretty solid campaign, but now with the Liberals releasing some of his past statements, so I think people should give the Tories a good hard look. At the very least, check out your local candidate first and don't vote Conservative in ridings with religious fundamentalists (my riding isn't one of them), but only ones with moderate candidates. Vic Toews past statements on abortion are quite troubling as are Rondo Thomas' from Ajax-Pickering's insulting statements of declaring war on all supporters of same-sex marriage. Check this video out of Rondo Thomas declaring war on supporters of same-sex marriage. This guy should also be told he cannot sit in the Conservative caucus if he wins. Also Paul Forseth's wife, Maureen Forseth called Christians to rally around him since he would promote Christian values in parliament . As Joyce Murray, the Liberal candidate rightly pointed out, an MP should represent all religions not just some. Another troubling part of Stephen Harper is is the speech he made to the far right Canadian Alliance for Social Justice and Family Values who have in the past compared homosexuality to bestality and compared Chretien and Martin to Hitler. Anyone who associates with such group should raise a certain amount of suspicion. His comment that he still holds his conservative views from the 1997 speech is also troubling. Today the Tories released their platform. I haven't read the whole thing, but most of it has already been announced. I did like the part on the capital gains tax cut. There have been some concerns it may lead to deficits and I think that is partially true, but not totally. Under the current conditions, they could easily meet their spending priorities without going into deficit, but if the economy took a turn for the worse, then they would unless they held off on their spending plans, which is probably what they would do, at least I would hope. However, there are three recent statements by Harper I have trouble with. The first one is pulling out of Kyoto. I was against Canada ratifying the agreement in the first place since I didn't feel we could realistically meet the targets and I don't think we can. But once you ratify a treaty, if you decide to pull out, it can do major damage to the country's international reputation. I think what he should of said, is I don't believe we can realistically meet our Kyoto targets, but we will try our best to at least cut pollution well below its current levels. Secondly, he said he was interested in re-opening the BMD talks. Although it is not likely a major issue, I would rather he keep his distance from the United States until Bush leaves the White House. Finally, his decision to not commit to the Kelowna agreement is unacceptable. There was a lot of effort put into dealing with First Nations issues and to pull out now shows the party's lack of understanding for First Nations' issues. I know our premier in BC, Gordon Campbell worked very hard on putting this summit together so I think ignoring it would be completely wrong.

Prediction: Conservatives 110-130 seats, Liberals 90-120 seats, BQ 50-65 seats, NDP 20-30 seats, so still winneable for the Liberals, but not highly probable.