Election Predictions
Okay here are my predictions by each region. Feel free to leave your own predictions in the comment section.
Atlantic Canada: The Liberals are still slightly ahead, but the gap is a lot smaller than last time around.
Liberals 18 seats - 42%
Conservatives 11 seats - 37% (Pick up Avalon, West Nova, Saint John, and Tobique-Mactaquac)
NDP 3 seats - 23%
Quebec: The Liberals have fallen through the floor, the Tories have surged while the Bloc Quebecois is more or less at where they were last time around. The Liberals strength is limited to West Montreal while Tories have been growing the most in Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.
Bloc Quebecois 62 seats - 46%
Liberals 8 seats - 18% (Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, St. Leonard-St. Michel)
Conservatives 5 seats - 24% (Louis-St. Laurent, Beauce, Pontiac and two others in Quebec City and/or Eastern Townships)
Ontario: The Tories have gained significantly in the 905 belt, Southwestern Ontario, and Eastern Ontario, however most recent polls show the Liberals making somewhat of recovery in Ontario. The NDP is also up too in Ontario.
Liberals 53 - 38% (20/22 in 416, 17/28 in 905 belt, 6 in Southwestern Ontario, 6 in Northern Ontario, 4 Eastern Ontario
Conservatives 41 - 36% (10 in 905 belt, 16 in Southwestern Ontario, 1 Northern Ontario, 13 Eastern Ontario
NDP - 12 - 21% (Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Oshawa, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Kenora, Timmins-James Bay, Sault Ste. Marie)
Manitoba/Saskatchewan - Not much change from last time around
Conservatives 19 - 44% (lose Regina-Qu'appelle, hold everything else)
Liberals 5 - 29% (Pick up Churchill)
NDP 4 - 25%
Alberta: Not a huge change, but this time around the Tories should sweep the province.
Conservatives 28 - 63%
Liberals 0 - 19%
NDP 0 - 13%
British Columbia: Not much change either
Conservatives 17 - 37%
NDP 11 - 30% (pick up British Columbia Southern Interior, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Victoria, Vancouver Island North, New Westminster-Coquitlam and Surrey North)
Liberals 8 - 28% (lose Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Victoria, pick up West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country and Newton-North Delta)
North
Liberals 2 (Yukon and Nunavut)
NDP 1 (Western Arctic)
Totals
Conservatives 121 - 36%
Liberals 94 - 29%
Bloc Quebecois 62 - 12%
NDP 31 - 19%
Green 0 - 5%
Atlantic Canada: The Liberals are still slightly ahead, but the gap is a lot smaller than last time around.
Liberals 18 seats - 42%
Conservatives 11 seats - 37% (Pick up Avalon, West Nova, Saint John, and Tobique-Mactaquac)
NDP 3 seats - 23%
Quebec: The Liberals have fallen through the floor, the Tories have surged while the Bloc Quebecois is more or less at where they were last time around. The Liberals strength is limited to West Montreal while Tories have been growing the most in Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.
Bloc Quebecois 62 seats - 46%
Liberals 8 seats - 18% (Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, St. Leonard-St. Michel)
Conservatives 5 seats - 24% (Louis-St. Laurent, Beauce, Pontiac and two others in Quebec City and/or Eastern Townships)
Ontario: The Tories have gained significantly in the 905 belt, Southwestern Ontario, and Eastern Ontario, however most recent polls show the Liberals making somewhat of recovery in Ontario. The NDP is also up too in Ontario.
Liberals 53 - 38% (20/22 in 416, 17/28 in 905 belt, 6 in Southwestern Ontario, 6 in Northern Ontario, 4 Eastern Ontario
Conservatives 41 - 36% (10 in 905 belt, 16 in Southwestern Ontario, 1 Northern Ontario, 13 Eastern Ontario
NDP - 12 - 21% (Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Oshawa, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Kenora, Timmins-James Bay, Sault Ste. Marie)
Manitoba/Saskatchewan - Not much change from last time around
Conservatives 19 - 44% (lose Regina-Qu'appelle, hold everything else)
Liberals 5 - 29% (Pick up Churchill)
NDP 4 - 25%
Alberta: Not a huge change, but this time around the Tories should sweep the province.
Conservatives 28 - 63%
Liberals 0 - 19%
NDP 0 - 13%
British Columbia: Not much change either
Conservatives 17 - 37%
NDP 11 - 30% (pick up British Columbia Southern Interior, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Victoria, Vancouver Island North, New Westminster-Coquitlam and Surrey North)
Liberals 8 - 28% (lose Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Victoria, pick up West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country and Newton-North Delta)
North
Liberals 2 (Yukon and Nunavut)
NDP 1 (Western Arctic)
Totals
Conservatives 121 - 36%
Liberals 94 - 29%
Bloc Quebecois 62 - 12%
NDP 31 - 19%
Green 0 - 5%
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:48 PM
17 Comments:
Pretty sound all around. not much for me to disagree with here.
How many "predictions" have you made there Miles.
BTW, I don't think those are predictions, I think those are you reading the latest polls.
Why don't we talk about your predicting a solid Lib majority.
BTW, if you think your "old party" will forget where you stood when it counted most - in the heat of an election - your sorrily mistaken.
You know, just in case you had any thoughts about weasling back to the conservatives....
I've made several predictions and yes the others were slanted based on my belief the Liberals would recover, which unfortunately they have not. However, the ones here are quite reasonable. They are similiar to those at the UBC election stock market and Democratic Space.
And no I don't plan on weasling back to the Conservatives anytime soon. Maybe once Harper retires or perhaps if Martin's successor is a left leaning Liberal like Bob Rae, but not in the near future, I'll tell you that much.
Hey CPC, don't speak for us all.
A Conservative win would make many of us feel vidicated but does not give anyone the right to be vindictive.
Being a gracious winner would be a good first step to responsible and responsive government.
God knows that, after this campaign (more on that later), we will ALL need some healing and forgiving.
On numbers now: Looks like your anti-Stephen sentiment is getting the best of you Miles, only because I don't see how you can have the Liberals at almost 30% (a 2-week high point for them) AND the NDP at an historic high, for them.
Indeed, if that's so, it will mean vote splitting, meaning still more Tory seats.
But, it's going to be a minority no matter.
I think the Tories can best 130 seats and would love to see them over 140 - but I'm thinking 131-133, Liberals in the mid to high eighties - Bloc 60+ and NDP 30+ (which would be an historic high).
What I mostly hope is that the results cause the Fiberals to think twice about their, as Andrew Coyne correctly called it, "demagogic, shrill, incoherent, divisive, xenophobic, hypocritical,campaign."
Ed Broadbent, too, correctly described the Liberal cam,paign as deeply offensive to all Canadians. To have seen his anger told you that this was the sincere response of an elder statesman, who has never seen the slimey likes of what Paul Martin offered up to Canadians in these past 4 weeks.
The Fiberal campaign plumbed new depths - so low, so absent a clue of what is ethical and so immoral in its attempt to divide and conquer that, should the Liberals be basnished to Hades, it would be but a stop or two down the Skytrain for them.
Alas, intolerance is not only welcome but encouraged in the Fiberal party and Maude Barlow, Basil Hargrove and other such "emminent" Canadians will no doubt argue that they failed only for the lack of even more hatred, hypocrisy and McCartheyesque hysteria.
Paul Martin became and has encouraged a new, ugly Canadian, who will be as unwanted and disdained on the the world stage for its smarmy self-righteousness and intolerence of dissenting opinion- as George W Bush himself.
Rant done - for today. As menioned, a little healing and forgivness are obviousy needed on all sides.
AA
Sigh.
Just wanted to attach something from the Liberal blogs.
Miles kept saying that PMPM had enigrated Stephen Harper because he "was from Calgary."
No, no, no, he said, PMPM did not make any neo-racist comments.
What follows is from the Liberal bloggers site:
Miles, he did indeed say it and worse, in our Ontario riding the liberal ads on the radio now keep telling listeners that Albertan values and communities are different than the rest of Canada and that electing Stephen Harper will force these "values" on the rest of Canada that they do not share and that Alberta will have too much control over the rest of the country!
Everyone here is chattering about it, that they don't think that Alberta should rule Canada. The fact that I EVER wanted and supported this PM is my shame and he has to be the biggest threat to national unity that we have ever had. Isn't there a video clip somewhere of this same man saying that if he did not unite Quebec and Alberta, all of Canada, that it would be his failure as a PM? I know that I heard him say it.
And Stephen Harper is scary???!!
To the first anonymous - I would hope the Conservatives don't gloat over their win if they do win, which looks pretty likely. Instead I hope they reach out to those who are not comfortable with Harper's policies.
Anonymous #2 - Show me a link to the anti-Alberta ad. I have a tough time imagining Paul Martin approving it considering he appointed Anne McLellan as his deputy PM and has more Westerners in his cabinet than any prime-minister in recent memory.
Martin and his supporters like Miles' here, have literally demonized Harper, fabricating positions, twisting every fact possible, playing on Canada's fears, dividing Canadians against one another, attacking our allies, disrespecting parents, belittling our military,
and CPC supporters who've endured this for years aren't even allowed to savour the moment???
Uhhhh, no I think they're entitled.
And there's a big difference between being "vendictive" and not forgetting what people have said and done during this election.
It's called accountability. It's called being responsible for your own actions ans words. As Martin's slide has continued, I've noticed people backtracking from thier own words as fast as they can. Miles here included.
Liberals don't like accountability very much. But they better get used to it.
Sounds interesting Miles... I also made predictions on my site. I wouldn't bet any money on it as I think it will come down to who can bring out more voters tomorrow...
Anonymous - We aren't fabricating positions or twisting the truth. We are simply taking things Harper has said in the past and putting them out for the public. If the truth hurts, tough. I don't think the Liberals are trying to pit Canadian against Canadian, they are simply talking about differences in values. The military ad was wrong and I totally condemn it. As for attacking our allies, which ally? I don't consider the United States an ally. Besides it is the United States who disrespects Canada so until they clean up their act we have every right to go after them. Also I don't want Canada to become more American. There is nothing anti-American about wanting to remain different.
Woosang - I saw your predictions and on the whole I would say they are quite reasonable.
We aren't fabricating positions or twisting the truth.
This is a joke, right?
On a completely different topic - do blogs have to shut down at midnight? Or just "official party blogs?" Or am I out in left, right field?
Just found a transcript of Ed Broadbent's succinct, accurate and wonderfully stated review of the Paul Martin hysteria tour:
"Mr. Martin accuses the New Democratic Party of partisanship. Were it not for the NDP putting its interests aside and putting working people’s interests first, the Liberal Party would have been fed to voters last spring.
It now is. And it has run a campaign that at best is incoherent, and at worst is deeply offensive. To women. To members of our armed forces. And to people who long for intellectual honesty in politics once more.
It is clear the Liberal Party no longer has the moral authority to deserve people’s votes. It is, simply, not the party it used to be or the party it portrays.
Touche. C'est vrais
RICHMOND, B.C. — Paul Martin says people in British Columbia can stop Conservative Leader Stephen Harper by abandoning the NDP and consolidating the anti-Tory vote among Liberal candidates in the province.
And Liberals in Quebec could stand uip for federalism by boting Tory. But they won't.
Liberals don't do ANYTHING that isn't in their self-intrest.
What a pathetic excuse for leadership.
What a class(less) act.
NDP voters know the Liberals will will never advance their causes or respect their values.
Values are a commodity to the Liberals - to be bought and sold in the interest of raw, personal power.
BC!
anonymous - Harper called America's Conservative movement a light of inspiration for Canadians, Don Plett president of the Conservatives sent an e-mail saying there would be a private members bill on abortion, Stephen Harper spoke at the Canadian Alliance for Social Justice and Family Values, which compared homosexuality to bestality and has a picture on its website with Hitler and Martin. I am not making this up.
Anonymous #2 - I fully respect what Ed Broadbent said and I agree the campaign has at times been offensive, but this was because of the idiots in the war room, not Paul Martin.
Anonymous #3 - Liberals are different than the NDP, but they are closer to the NDP than the Conservatives are.
That abortion email. Sure it didn't come from the campaign office of Liberal Chris Axeworthy?
Liberal "truths."
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Please, no more
Miles,
At least you have admited that the Martini Libs will go down on Monday to defeat.
But, of course, you have over estimated the Libs seat count and under estimated the Tories.
In the interest of full disclosure way back on the first day of the election on Nov 29, 2005 I made the following prediction in the Steynonline Contest based on gut instinct that after 13 years in power and a weak dithering PMPM the voters wanted change.
I predicted that the seats would go like this:
84 Liberal seats
128 Conservatives seats
33 NDP seats
63 Bloc seats
Now I think given the poll numbers back on Nov 29 the above was a pretty good Kreskin like prediction.
But the day before the election I think the above numbers are far too modest for the Tories.
Here's my prediction for Monday:
75 Liberal seats
140 Conservatives seats
35 NDP seats
58 Bloc seats
I'm pretty confident in the above new numbers. The polls (except SES) show the tories in the high 30s and the Libs in the high 20s with about an 8-12 point lead.
The big question mark I think is majority or minority. I think it is far too hard to predict the possible impact of the Conservative Blue Wave across Canada.
The Atlanic Provinces and Quebec could elect alot more Tories than people are thinking they will based on the desire to have MPs in government and at Cabinet.
The same can be said of Ontario.
I think relistically the Tories have a shot at between 140-170 seats.
Obviously given my prediction above I think they will hit the low water mark on that range. But if the voters get grumpy on Monday towards the Libs and/or want to elect Government MPs the Tories may be able to squeeze out a tight majority. (here's hoping that they do).
But you never can tell and I think that my above revised predictions are the most likely outcome.
Cheers
Rick
The abortion e-mail came from Conservative president Don Plett who is a staunch social conservative. The e-mail said a private members bill on abortion would be brought forward in the next session. 70% of Conservative candidates are pro-life, so unless they win a weak minority, abortion is under threat if the Conservatives get in. I just hope the Senate will block it.
If you assume the increase in Conservative support is even across Canada than your predictions Rick are very accurate. The problem is the biggest increase in Tory support has been in Quebec where the party has tripled in support, but will likely only win a handful of seats in Eastern Townships and Quebec City. In Ontario, the party has gone up, but still trails in the GTA and even in Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, I expect the Liberals to hold their urban ridings, but lose their rural and suburban ridings. In Atlantic Canada, the Tories will gain a few seats, but not too many. In New Brunswick they are tied with the Liberals, while in Newfoundland & Labrador the gap has narrowed considerably, but in Nova Scotia and PEI, the polls show the Tories have only gone up about 2-3 points. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan there aren't many seats left to gain, while only 2 seats in Alberta. With the Dippers increasing their vote in British Columbia, I expect the Tories to lose some seats to the Dippers while West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast and Newton-North Delta could go Liberal due to lack of incumbent. 140 seats is possible, but if you look at the regional breakdown of any poll, it is highly unlikely and 170 seats is not possible.
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