Election Thoughts
After having a day to think over the election results, below I will give my thoughts on the performance of each party and on what I think happened in each region. On the whole I was not too disappointed in the election results. While I wanted the Liberals to win, it was clear on election day that this was not going to happen. Instead the Liberals formed a strong opposition, while the Conservatives won a weak minority, meaning they are on a tight leash, so no reason to worry about any far right policies being adopted. I also was pleased to see the Conservatives defeat 8 separtist members. For all my qualms with the Conservatives, I will always take any federalist party over a separtist party.
Conservatives: Stephen Harper clearly won a mandate to become Canada's next prime-minister, but it is a modest mandate. He has the mandate to clean up government and make changes advocated in the party's platform, but no mandate to adopt any radical changes. The party's failure to win any seats in Canada's three largest cities is a clear sign of where the party must focus if it wishes to win a majority government in the future. I will keep on an open mind on how Harper governs and should he turn out to not be as scary as I believe, I may consider going Conservative next time around, but for now I am sticking with the Liberals since I still worry about what type of government we would get if he won a majority government.
Liberals: The party did about as good as it could have given the weak campaign and strong desire for change. While I am somewhat sad to see Paul Martin resign, he did the right thing. The party needs fresh leadership and fresh ideas to re-build itself so it can once again form government. Unlike other Canadians, I believe Paul Martin will be looked upon kindly in history. It was under his leadership that turned Canada's economy around and turned massive deficits into massive surpluses. Thanks to his leadership, Canada is now in the best shape its ever been. As prime-minister, I also think he deserves credit in three areas: his leadership on bringing equality rights to gays and lesbians, the establishment of Canada's first social program since medicare (despite my misgivings on a national childcare, starting a new social program takes leadership and he should be commended). On medicare, waiting times are beginning to fall and even though he shouldn't get credit for solving medicare's woes, he did get the ball rolling. I also believe the Kelowna Accord may help solve Aboriginal Affairs. Finally here in BC, we have never had a government who has shown such a keen interest in BC. I suspect that explains why the Liberals gained seats in BC despite losing them elsewhere. To all successful Liberal candidates, I say good luck in your future careers and to all defeated candidates, thanks for your service to our country. After having time to go over the defeat, I will in later posts discuss on how to re-build the party.
Bloc Quebecois: Prior to the election everybody was expecting the Bloc Quebecois to win more seats and break the symbolic 50% + 1. Thankfully this did not happen and I believe that this is a clear victory for federalism. The Conservatives due to deserve credit for helping create an alternative federalist option in Quebec.
NDP: Jack Layton ran a strong campaign and I might add a positive one. He avoided the mudslinging that we saw of the other problems and this seems to have paid off. Hopefully this will be a lesson to other parties to focus on talking about what type of Canada we want, rather than mudslinging. I still continue to disagree with the NDP's policies strongly, but believe they are a legitimate part of our democracy as many Canadians do share their views.
Finally I should note that we have one independent, shock jock Andre Arthur from Quebec. Considering he is generally right leaning, I suspect he will be helpful in passing bills for the Conservatives.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
Atlantic Canada: For the most part not too far off my predictions. Although I predicted the Tories would win 11 seats, the two seats I thought they would pick up were Saint John and West Nova, which were very close. PEI and Nova Scotia saw very little change from last time, while Conservatives closed the gap with the Liberals significantly in both Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick, but despite this, they only picked up one seat in each of those two provinces. Atlantic Canada still seems to have not totally forgiven Stephen Harper for his comments on Atlantic Canada being a culture of defeatism, especially in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. However, also in Atlantic Canada, defeating an incumbent is quite difficult compared to elsewhere in Canada.
Quebec: I was pleasantly surprised the Liberals won 13 seats in Quebec. I didn't expect them to hold Honore-Mercier, Outremont, or Hull-Aylmer, so I am quite pleased they did better than expected. I expect a lot of this has to do with Liberals being strongest amongst older Quebecers who are more likely to show up on election day. I was totally suprised at how well the Conservatives did. I don't think even the optimist within the Conservative Party expected them to win over 8 seats. Despite what the polls were saying, there was no Conservative ground organization in Quebec, so I was surprised they managed to get their vote out, which is essential for winning. I was off course happy to see the Bloc Quebecois fall in popular vote and lose seats.
Ontario: As I expected the NDP made gains in Ontario, the Tories made significant gains in rural/suburban Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and the non-GTA 905 belt ridings. The Tories shut out in the 416 and poor showing in the GTA portions of the 905 belt was no surprise as people in large urban areas generally won't vote for any party with any hint of social conservatism, whereas elsewhere is long as one doesn't wear social conservatism on their sleeves they can win elsewhere. There were a few surprises: I didn't expect us to hold Newmarket-Aurora, Brant, and Ottawa South, while on the other hand I was surprised the Conservatives picked up Sarnia-Lambton and Ottawa-Orleans. While the Liberals won more seats than the Conservatives, they fared poorly outside the GTA and with their strong showing in the West, gains in Quebec allowed for the party to win. Ontario much like British Columbia had the strong rural/suburban/urban divide. While the rural areas were already Conservative and the urban areas stayed Liberal, it was the suburban areas and mid sized cities is what tipped the balance in Ontario.
Manitoba/Saskatchewan: Went largely Conservative, but I was glad to see Tina Keeper pick up Churchill. I was surprised to see the Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South, while surprised, but pleased to see the Liberals take Churchill River in Saskatchewan. Once again the NDP was shut out of Saskatchewan, so it will be interesting if the party alters its policies to make it more appealing to Saskatchewan or will they be happy with their gains in Ontario and British Columbia.
Alberta: To no one's surprise, it went solidly Conservative. I was disappointed to see Anne McLellan go down in defeat, but at least I know Alberta will have someone sitting on the government benches. My biggest fear was of a Conservative win with no seats in Quebec or a Liberal win with no seats in Alberta. Thankfully neither scenario came to fruition. Even though Alberta having a prime-minister from their province is definitely good for the province, I would say to all Albertans don't set your expectations to high. You have right to be angry about being ignored in the past, but that doesn't mean you have the right to dominate Canada. We need to bring Alberta in, which I hope we can do. I also ask all Alberta separtists now that the Conservatives are in to quit talking about separation. You got your wish, now time to stop complaining.
British Columbia: BC has a long history of bucking the national trend and sure enough BC did it again. Once again, BC elected more opposition members than government members. I was right in my predictions in every riding except Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, which I thought the NDP would win, but thankfully I was wrong here. I was pleased to see religious fundamentalists Cindy Silver, John Weston, Darrel Reid, and Paul Forseth lose. A word of advice to the Conservatives, urban and suburban ridings have little tolerance for religious fundamentalists so if you want to win ridings like West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, North Vancouver, Richmond, and Ajax-Pickering, run moderate candidates, not religious fundamentalists. I was disappointed Joyce Murray in New Westminster-Coquitlam came in third, but very pleased with the results in Fleetwood-Port Kells. Had the national campaign not been such a disaster, I believe Brenda Locke would have won the riding. I was glad to see David Emerson re-elected. He has brought much to BC and I am sure he will continue to do so even if in opposition. I was also glad to see Svend Robinson lose.
As final parting note, I am pleased to see Voter Turnout increase to 65%. While not as high as I wanted, I am glad to see it is going up not down. I will later talk about what lead to the defeat of the Liberals later this week.
Conservatives: Stephen Harper clearly won a mandate to become Canada's next prime-minister, but it is a modest mandate. He has the mandate to clean up government and make changes advocated in the party's platform, but no mandate to adopt any radical changes. The party's failure to win any seats in Canada's three largest cities is a clear sign of where the party must focus if it wishes to win a majority government in the future. I will keep on an open mind on how Harper governs and should he turn out to not be as scary as I believe, I may consider going Conservative next time around, but for now I am sticking with the Liberals since I still worry about what type of government we would get if he won a majority government.
Liberals: The party did about as good as it could have given the weak campaign and strong desire for change. While I am somewhat sad to see Paul Martin resign, he did the right thing. The party needs fresh leadership and fresh ideas to re-build itself so it can once again form government. Unlike other Canadians, I believe Paul Martin will be looked upon kindly in history. It was under his leadership that turned Canada's economy around and turned massive deficits into massive surpluses. Thanks to his leadership, Canada is now in the best shape its ever been. As prime-minister, I also think he deserves credit in three areas: his leadership on bringing equality rights to gays and lesbians, the establishment of Canada's first social program since medicare (despite my misgivings on a national childcare, starting a new social program takes leadership and he should be commended). On medicare, waiting times are beginning to fall and even though he shouldn't get credit for solving medicare's woes, he did get the ball rolling. I also believe the Kelowna Accord may help solve Aboriginal Affairs. Finally here in BC, we have never had a government who has shown such a keen interest in BC. I suspect that explains why the Liberals gained seats in BC despite losing them elsewhere. To all successful Liberal candidates, I say good luck in your future careers and to all defeated candidates, thanks for your service to our country. After having time to go over the defeat, I will in later posts discuss on how to re-build the party.
Bloc Quebecois: Prior to the election everybody was expecting the Bloc Quebecois to win more seats and break the symbolic 50% + 1. Thankfully this did not happen and I believe that this is a clear victory for federalism. The Conservatives due to deserve credit for helping create an alternative federalist option in Quebec.
NDP: Jack Layton ran a strong campaign and I might add a positive one. He avoided the mudslinging that we saw of the other problems and this seems to have paid off. Hopefully this will be a lesson to other parties to focus on talking about what type of Canada we want, rather than mudslinging. I still continue to disagree with the NDP's policies strongly, but believe they are a legitimate part of our democracy as many Canadians do share their views.
Finally I should note that we have one independent, shock jock Andre Arthur from Quebec. Considering he is generally right leaning, I suspect he will be helpful in passing bills for the Conservatives.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
Atlantic Canada: For the most part not too far off my predictions. Although I predicted the Tories would win 11 seats, the two seats I thought they would pick up were Saint John and West Nova, which were very close. PEI and Nova Scotia saw very little change from last time, while Conservatives closed the gap with the Liberals significantly in both Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick, but despite this, they only picked up one seat in each of those two provinces. Atlantic Canada still seems to have not totally forgiven Stephen Harper for his comments on Atlantic Canada being a culture of defeatism, especially in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. However, also in Atlantic Canada, defeating an incumbent is quite difficult compared to elsewhere in Canada.
Quebec: I was pleasantly surprised the Liberals won 13 seats in Quebec. I didn't expect them to hold Honore-Mercier, Outremont, or Hull-Aylmer, so I am quite pleased they did better than expected. I expect a lot of this has to do with Liberals being strongest amongst older Quebecers who are more likely to show up on election day. I was totally suprised at how well the Conservatives did. I don't think even the optimist within the Conservative Party expected them to win over 8 seats. Despite what the polls were saying, there was no Conservative ground organization in Quebec, so I was surprised they managed to get their vote out, which is essential for winning. I was off course happy to see the Bloc Quebecois fall in popular vote and lose seats.
Ontario: As I expected the NDP made gains in Ontario, the Tories made significant gains in rural/suburban Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and the non-GTA 905 belt ridings. The Tories shut out in the 416 and poor showing in the GTA portions of the 905 belt was no surprise as people in large urban areas generally won't vote for any party with any hint of social conservatism, whereas elsewhere is long as one doesn't wear social conservatism on their sleeves they can win elsewhere. There were a few surprises: I didn't expect us to hold Newmarket-Aurora, Brant, and Ottawa South, while on the other hand I was surprised the Conservatives picked up Sarnia-Lambton and Ottawa-Orleans. While the Liberals won more seats than the Conservatives, they fared poorly outside the GTA and with their strong showing in the West, gains in Quebec allowed for the party to win. Ontario much like British Columbia had the strong rural/suburban/urban divide. While the rural areas were already Conservative and the urban areas stayed Liberal, it was the suburban areas and mid sized cities is what tipped the balance in Ontario.
Manitoba/Saskatchewan: Went largely Conservative, but I was glad to see Tina Keeper pick up Churchill. I was surprised to see the Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South, while surprised, but pleased to see the Liberals take Churchill River in Saskatchewan. Once again the NDP was shut out of Saskatchewan, so it will be interesting if the party alters its policies to make it more appealing to Saskatchewan or will they be happy with their gains in Ontario and British Columbia.
Alberta: To no one's surprise, it went solidly Conservative. I was disappointed to see Anne McLellan go down in defeat, but at least I know Alberta will have someone sitting on the government benches. My biggest fear was of a Conservative win with no seats in Quebec or a Liberal win with no seats in Alberta. Thankfully neither scenario came to fruition. Even though Alberta having a prime-minister from their province is definitely good for the province, I would say to all Albertans don't set your expectations to high. You have right to be angry about being ignored in the past, but that doesn't mean you have the right to dominate Canada. We need to bring Alberta in, which I hope we can do. I also ask all Alberta separtists now that the Conservatives are in to quit talking about separation. You got your wish, now time to stop complaining.
British Columbia: BC has a long history of bucking the national trend and sure enough BC did it again. Once again, BC elected more opposition members than government members. I was right in my predictions in every riding except Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, which I thought the NDP would win, but thankfully I was wrong here. I was pleased to see religious fundamentalists Cindy Silver, John Weston, Darrel Reid, and Paul Forseth lose. A word of advice to the Conservatives, urban and suburban ridings have little tolerance for religious fundamentalists so if you want to win ridings like West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, North Vancouver, Richmond, and Ajax-Pickering, run moderate candidates, not religious fundamentalists. I was disappointed Joyce Murray in New Westminster-Coquitlam came in third, but very pleased with the results in Fleetwood-Port Kells. Had the national campaign not been such a disaster, I believe Brenda Locke would have won the riding. I was glad to see David Emerson re-elected. He has brought much to BC and I am sure he will continue to do so even if in opposition. I was also glad to see Svend Robinson lose.
As final parting note, I am pleased to see Voter Turnout increase to 65%. While not as high as I wanted, I am glad to see it is going up not down. I will later talk about what lead to the defeat of the Liberals later this week.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 9:41 PM
13 Comments:
"I also ask all Alberta separtists now that the Conservatives are in to quit talking about separation. You got your wish, now time to stop complaining."
We'll see.
I haven't given my prosperity cheque to the seperatists yet.
But, Stephen Harper hasn't even been sworn in and we have had three pages in the Toronto Star and God knows how many minutes on the CBC looking for white supremists in the Alberta woods, gay bashing pastors in ur cities and other assorted knuckle draggers anywhere.
So, I think I'll bank that cheque and wait before deciding. We still need the full firewall just in case-I don't trust Canada anymore.
AB
As someone with most of my family coming from Alberta, I understand Alberta's concerns, but those concerns should be dealt with by being heard at the national level, not through building firewalls. That is partly why I wanted more Liberal members elected in Alberta back when it looked like the Liberals would win re-election, but at least now that is no longer an issue considering the Conservatives won. With all 28 members from Alberta sitting on the government side, what are you complaining about? Okay they will be joined by 40 Ontario members, 10 Quebec members and 9 Atlantic Canada members, but I see this as a good thing for national unity, not a bad thing.
The anti-Harper myth, already beginning to be de-constructed:
Harper showed little hesitation in slapping down U.S. envoy David Wilkins for making critical remarks about Conservative plans to boost Canada's presence in the far north.
"The United States defends its sovereignty, the Canadian government will defend our sovereignty," Harper told reporters during his first news conference since the election.
"It is the Canadian people we get our mandate from, not the ambassador of the United States."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060126/wl_canada_nm/canada_politics_c_col
Harper may be a Conservative. But he's nobody's toady, and nobody's puppet.
Brandon - Since Harper has a weak minority government, I expect him to tread quite carefully. My worry is if he gets a majority government someday. I am not at all worried based on the current results.
Hey, I'm not complaining about sharing Conservative members with the ROC.
Hell, I'm pleased as can possibly be that we elected ten MPs in Quebec, a real breakthrough with the province that I see as Alberta's historical ally (would that the local media in Alberta and Quebec would read their history).
I even think Alberta should know enough not to demand too many seats at the cabinet table - some folks say five, I would be just fine with that maybe even four.
No,no. My point is simply - one day after the "west gets in," is hardly the time to say everything is great again. There's going to be some tough sledding ahead and I'm just waiting to see who starts the neo-racist Alberta campaign up first and what sort of legs it has.
But hey, I'm banking that cheque, remember. So far, so god.
AB
I especially liked this Canadian Press story on the Prime Minister Elect's first press conference. Wonder if beer and popcorn boy can read:
Harper's first post-election newser a model in efficiency
Updated Thu. Jan. 26 2006 6:21 PM ET
Canadian Press
OTTAWA — He hasn't even been sworn in yet, but in a 22-minute heartbeat Thursday, Stephen Harper placed his stamp on the country's highest elected office.
The title of prime minister "sounds good,'' Harper corrected a media questioner in his first news conference since being elected Monday.
"But I'll be patient.''
Not really.
With a startling efficiency quite foreign to his predecessor, Canada's soon-to-be 22nd prime minister set about meeting the national news media _ and by extension the Canadian electorate -- in the foyer of the House of Commons.
It was a clinic in political messaging.
The Conservative leader eschewed the traditional sit-down news conference in the National Press Theatre, choosing instead as his backdrop the open oak doors to the Commons chamber and a prime ministerial lectern.
The anglophone economist from Calgary spoke nothing but French for the opening four minutes of his first public address.
He acknowledged congratulatory phone calls from four foreign leaders, citing problematic U.S. President George W. Bush neither first nor last.
He doffed his cap to this weekend's Chinese new year, a nod to Canada's vibrant ethnic communities.
In short, from the moment Harper stepped under the TV lights through his snappy answers to 22 questions in 15 minutes and a curve-ball bonus response to a question no one asked, the 46-year-old showed not a single freshman jitter.
The entire exercise was designed to get Canadians used to the idea of Stephen Harper, prime minister.
It's a project that may take some time.
"I guess hell has frozen over,'' more than one media wag joked in the bitter cold outside Rideau Hall on Thursday morning as the incoming boss arrived to pay his respects to Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean.
Even some of Harper's own MPs were quietly marvelling at the turn of political fortunes.
"I never thought I'd be back in government,'' soft-spoken Tory veteran Bill Casey said as he observed the massive media throng on Parliament Hill.
The old Progressive Conservative MP from Amherst, N.S., credited Harper with orchestrating the most disciplined, simple and clear campaign of any of the six that Casey's run in dating back to 1988. He added that the Conservatives must maintain those qualities in order for this Tory minority to succeed.
Time may prove the man that many Canadians considered unelectable will fit the mould of prime minister better than they imagined.
Harper's stiff aura of power is more suited to high office than opposition glad-handing. This, after all, is a man who shakes the hand of his seven-year-old daughter for the news cameras when dropping the young sprite off at school.
Thursday afternoon, Harper got off to a sure-footed, if slightly unorthodox, start.
Television networks got the first six opportunities to question the prime minister-designate, while Canada's biggest and most influential daily newspapers were relegated to the back of the pack.
There was a refreshing brevity to Harper's responses. He occasionally dodged, but he didn't weave.
He said he'll hold the promised free vote on reversing same-sex marriage legislation sooner rather than later, virtually assuring that the existing law will survive and the divisive issue can be laid to rest.
He indicated his displeasure with a Hamas government in the Palestinian territories, but formally closed no doors.
And Harper purposely ended the session by raising the issue of Arctic sovereignty, straight-arming comments from U.S. Ambassador David Wilkins to the effect that Canada need not worry about the far north.
"It is the Canadian people we get our mandate from, not the ambassador of the United States,'' said Harper.
From start to finish, the entire media availability seemed to take up no more time than one of outgoing Prime Minister Paul Martin's subordinate clauses.
SSM vote will virtually ensure that it dies! That's exactly what he planned folks. That or defeat in the courts or senate, in ether case, he would still have let it die.
Not much of a boogeyman.
I'm telling you folks, he's going to exceed expectations.
Just watch.
Brandon - He'll have two years in my opinion to prove himself. I personally think the Liberals would be foolish to pull the plug any sooner. They need to get a new leader, bring the Martinite and Chretienite factions together, and do some serious fundraising to help eliminate the debt. The next two years will be crucial in determining whether Harper goes the way of Joe Clark or the way of John Diefenbaker. Likewise I am glad there are 10 Conservative MPs from Quebec who will hopefully play a strong moderating influence within the party. Hopefully the Western and rural Ontario redneck MPs will be able to get a lesson on how Canada is more diverse and broad nation than their narrow image. Also if Harper wishes to win seats in the three largest cities: Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, he has no choice but to moderate. Those cities have their right leaning areas, but no section of those cities will elect anyone with any hint of social conservatism. In fact even inner suburbs like Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, Richmond, and the North Shore still seem wary of the Conservatives.
You occasionally show glimpses of informed opinion, Miles, but then you flush your credibility down the drain when you refer to "redneck MPs" from the West. What an insult to Westerners and Albertans in particular. Monte Solberg is no 'redneck'. Diane Ablonczy is no 'redneck.'
Grow up!
Joel McLaughlin, I am a Westerner myself and most of my family is from Alberta so not all Westerners are rednecks. However there are some redneck MPs from the West such as Rob Anders, Myron Thompson, and Stockwell Day. There are also some rednecks from Ontario too such as David Sweet, Harold Albrecht, and Pierre Lemieux and possibly even in Atlantic Canada. My point was the ten Quebec MPs will help moderate the party just as the large Quebec caucus in the 80s helped moved the Progressive Conservatives closer to the centre.
Miles,
You nver mention Liberal rednecks. Whynot? And did you have this aversion to the Conservatives when Elsie Wayne was an MP? Seriously.
Here we are trying to have a gracious conversation with you, and you fall into Scott Reid mode. It's not flattering you know.
AB
Anonymous - there aren't too many Liberal rednecks. They are some who I find a little too right wing on social policies, but thankfully they are a small minority and their influence in the party is limited.
Oh God, there aren't many Liberal rednecks. I haven't laughed that hard since Paul Martin tried to pull a rabbit out of his hat and ended up with the NWC. Thanks Miles, I needed that. No rednecks, in our biggest cities, Miles isn't making this up......
On a serious note, and do try to pay attention, here's some suggested reading if you want to know why people outside of the known centre of the universe voted Consevative:
http://www.navltd.com/Expectations.pdf
It makes some interesting points, not just on policy strengths and weaknesses but also about, what even I as a Conservative voter am somewhat shocked and bemused to call, Harper charisma.
No kidding, seems that he's tapped into something. Mind you, it's only day 3 of the 100-day marriage - but it was still an interesting read.
AB/BA
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