The Race so far
For whatever reason, the Liberal website seems to be stuck at 409 meetings, however we can still get a clear picture of how things are shaping up. So here is my take:
Ignatieff: He has a strong enough lead that when you add in the ex-officio support, which will likely put him around 35%, he should be able to win if there isn't an anybody but Iggy movement. But still being well shy of 50% means that if the other campaigns all collude around another campaign, he won't win. I would still say he is the frontrunner to be the next Liberal leader, and therefore next prime-minister of Canada, but it is far from a guarantee.
Rae: He certainly performed much better than anybody expected when he first throw his name in the hat, but still finished well back of Ignatieff despite some polls suggesting they would be neck-neck. Being only slightly ahead of Dion and Kennedy and the possibility of falling behind once ex-officio support is included, depending on how many delegates show up from each camp, a lot will depend on his ability to win over some of the lower-tier candidates. This would put him in a clear second place and a clear rival of Ignatieff. However, if the lower tier candidates choose Kennedy or Dion, he may not even make it to the final ballot. His support seemed to be weakest in Ontario, which many attribute to his controversial time as premier, although 17% is not by any means bad. I would though be interested in seeing a riding by riding breakdown. If this is across the entire province, then he is in good shape, however if his support in the 905 belt and rural Ontario is much lower, then this is probably a sign many people from those areas still see him as a liability. One MP, Paul Szabo was on record saying he didn't think he could be re-elected in his constituency if Rae were leader. I think he has a decent shot at still winning, but not as strong as some thought prior to the Super-weekend.
Kennedy: A very strong showing in Ontario and the West, however with barely 1% in Quebec, this could be problematic for him. Certainly the fact he carries little baggage makes him a potential compromise candidate, however his poor showing in Quebec may make some Liberals think twice about going over to him if their candidate is dropped off an earlier ballot. With this in mind, I think Kennedy has really no choice but to work hard on getting Stephane Dion's support if he drops off before him, since this is the only way I think he could show that he is at least somewhat credible in Quebec. With Stephane Dion being strong in Quebec, while Kennedy strong in Ontario and the West, I've argued the two should agree to throw their support behind the other after one drops off and during the election should give the other person the role of deputy leader. This would be a way of showing Quebec, Rural Ontario, and the West that the Liberals see them as important areas and could help them improve in all those areas instead of just one of them.
Dion: Will finish in either third or fourth, so for him picking up some of the lower tier candidates support could be crucial if he wishes to emerge as the candidate to take on Iggy on the final ballot. A very strong showing in Quebec, but a disappointing showing elsewhere. However, my suspicion is many people elsewhere felt he was a huge liability in Quebec and now that they see that it is not the case, they will be more likely to consider him on subsequent ballots. He is hated by the separtists, but they will never vote Liberal, so who really cares what they think. Amongst federalist Quebecers, he is well liked and has been shown to be the best person to make a breakthrough in Quebec. Unlike Iggy and Rae who are polarizing candidates, Dion is a consensus candidate who will not alienate either Martin or Chretien supporters, nor Blue Liberals or left-leaning Liberals. I have met Liberals who said they would tear up their membership card if Iggy and/or Rae won, but I have yet to meet a Liberal who would tear up their membership card if Dion won. While winning the race may not be easy, I still think he has a very decent shot at doing it.
Dryden: Obviously a disappointment that he couldn't break even the 5% mark or barely (depending on the final results). This means he has no chance at being the next Liberal leader. However, since he is well respected amongst Liberals, I suspect he will provide a huge boost to whoever he throws his support behind at least symbolically.
Volpe: The fact this guy didn't come in dead last is absolutely embarassing. At the same time the fact he did as poorly as he did is a relief to many Liberals since many worried that if his 35,000 mass sign-ups showed up he could play the role of kingmaker. Thankfully that won't happen. Also an interesting side note is his strongest showing came in Alberta while here in BC according to Brandon, his two best ridings were Abbotsford and Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon so I wonder how many of his supporters were Tories signing up to vote for him simply becaue he would be a dream candidate for them. My hope is now that he has seen the results, he will drop out and disappear.
Brison: Certainly a disappointment for him. However, I am not totally surprised. While he came in first in his home province of Nova Scotia, his support elsewhere was quite weak. I suspect a lot of this has to do with the fact he is still viewed as too right wing for many Liberals. Not only are his foreign policy views centre-right like Ignatieff, but unlike Ignatieff his economic policies are centre-right as well, whereas Ignatieff's are centre-left. I figure he would have done better had Tory support been imploding and there were many disaffected Tories looking at going Liberal. However, most Liberals seem to believe that any gains will come from the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives so therefore there are more party members who want to move the party to the left than the right. Since he is only 39, he will almost certainly get another opportunity.
Hall Findlay: Considering how much of a darkhorse she was, I never expected her to do that well. I think her main achievement was she went from being an unknown, to being well respected amongst Liberal rank and file members. She will provide a huge boost to whoever she throws her support behind. Also considering she is only 46, I suspect she will do much better next time around as she will likely become an MP and probably a cabinet minister in the next Liberal government meaning she will have a greater profile and name recognition amongst Liberals and the general public.
So in summary, our next prime-minister will be either Dion, Ignatieff, Kennedy, or Rae. This December we will find out who that is and sometime next year, that person will hopefully become Canada's next prime-minister.
Ignatieff: He has a strong enough lead that when you add in the ex-officio support, which will likely put him around 35%, he should be able to win if there isn't an anybody but Iggy movement. But still being well shy of 50% means that if the other campaigns all collude around another campaign, he won't win. I would still say he is the frontrunner to be the next Liberal leader, and therefore next prime-minister of Canada, but it is far from a guarantee.
Rae: He certainly performed much better than anybody expected when he first throw his name in the hat, but still finished well back of Ignatieff despite some polls suggesting they would be neck-neck. Being only slightly ahead of Dion and Kennedy and the possibility of falling behind once ex-officio support is included, depending on how many delegates show up from each camp, a lot will depend on his ability to win over some of the lower-tier candidates. This would put him in a clear second place and a clear rival of Ignatieff. However, if the lower tier candidates choose Kennedy or Dion, he may not even make it to the final ballot. His support seemed to be weakest in Ontario, which many attribute to his controversial time as premier, although 17% is not by any means bad. I would though be interested in seeing a riding by riding breakdown. If this is across the entire province, then he is in good shape, however if his support in the 905 belt and rural Ontario is much lower, then this is probably a sign many people from those areas still see him as a liability. One MP, Paul Szabo was on record saying he didn't think he could be re-elected in his constituency if Rae were leader. I think he has a decent shot at still winning, but not as strong as some thought prior to the Super-weekend.
Kennedy: A very strong showing in Ontario and the West, however with barely 1% in Quebec, this could be problematic for him. Certainly the fact he carries little baggage makes him a potential compromise candidate, however his poor showing in Quebec may make some Liberals think twice about going over to him if their candidate is dropped off an earlier ballot. With this in mind, I think Kennedy has really no choice but to work hard on getting Stephane Dion's support if he drops off before him, since this is the only way I think he could show that he is at least somewhat credible in Quebec. With Stephane Dion being strong in Quebec, while Kennedy strong in Ontario and the West, I've argued the two should agree to throw their support behind the other after one drops off and during the election should give the other person the role of deputy leader. This would be a way of showing Quebec, Rural Ontario, and the West that the Liberals see them as important areas and could help them improve in all those areas instead of just one of them.
Dion: Will finish in either third or fourth, so for him picking up some of the lower tier candidates support could be crucial if he wishes to emerge as the candidate to take on Iggy on the final ballot. A very strong showing in Quebec, but a disappointing showing elsewhere. However, my suspicion is many people elsewhere felt he was a huge liability in Quebec and now that they see that it is not the case, they will be more likely to consider him on subsequent ballots. He is hated by the separtists, but they will never vote Liberal, so who really cares what they think. Amongst federalist Quebecers, he is well liked and has been shown to be the best person to make a breakthrough in Quebec. Unlike Iggy and Rae who are polarizing candidates, Dion is a consensus candidate who will not alienate either Martin or Chretien supporters, nor Blue Liberals or left-leaning Liberals. I have met Liberals who said they would tear up their membership card if Iggy and/or Rae won, but I have yet to meet a Liberal who would tear up their membership card if Dion won. While winning the race may not be easy, I still think he has a very decent shot at doing it.
Dryden: Obviously a disappointment that he couldn't break even the 5% mark or barely (depending on the final results). This means he has no chance at being the next Liberal leader. However, since he is well respected amongst Liberals, I suspect he will provide a huge boost to whoever he throws his support behind at least symbolically.
Volpe: The fact this guy didn't come in dead last is absolutely embarassing. At the same time the fact he did as poorly as he did is a relief to many Liberals since many worried that if his 35,000 mass sign-ups showed up he could play the role of kingmaker. Thankfully that won't happen. Also an interesting side note is his strongest showing came in Alberta while here in BC according to Brandon, his two best ridings were Abbotsford and Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon so I wonder how many of his supporters were Tories signing up to vote for him simply becaue he would be a dream candidate for them. My hope is now that he has seen the results, he will drop out and disappear.
Brison: Certainly a disappointment for him. However, I am not totally surprised. While he came in first in his home province of Nova Scotia, his support elsewhere was quite weak. I suspect a lot of this has to do with the fact he is still viewed as too right wing for many Liberals. Not only are his foreign policy views centre-right like Ignatieff, but unlike Ignatieff his economic policies are centre-right as well, whereas Ignatieff's are centre-left. I figure he would have done better had Tory support been imploding and there were many disaffected Tories looking at going Liberal. However, most Liberals seem to believe that any gains will come from the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives so therefore there are more party members who want to move the party to the left than the right. Since he is only 39, he will almost certainly get another opportunity.
Hall Findlay: Considering how much of a darkhorse she was, I never expected her to do that well. I think her main achievement was she went from being an unknown, to being well respected amongst Liberal rank and file members. She will provide a huge boost to whoever she throws her support behind. Also considering she is only 46, I suspect she will do much better next time around as she will likely become an MP and probably a cabinet minister in the next Liberal government meaning she will have a greater profile and name recognition amongst Liberals and the general public.
So in summary, our next prime-minister will be either Dion, Ignatieff, Kennedy, or Rae. This December we will find out who that is and sometime next year, that person will hopefully become Canada's next prime-minister.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 10:06 PM
10 Comments:
So in summary, our next prime-minister will be either Dion, Ignatieff, Kennedy, or Rae. This December we will find out who that is and sometime next year, that person will hopefully become Canada's next prime-minister.
Don't be so sure about that you aggrorant Liberal.
Considering only one Liberal leader in Canada's history has not been prime-minister, I think it is pretty safe to say the next leader will be. Stephen Harper is no Diefenbaker or Mulroney. In fact Mulroney and Diefenbaker were only as successful as they were because they were close to the centre where most Canadians are, not on the ideological right where most Canadians aren't. I believe that the Liberals will be back within the next three elections at the absolute most.
Miles you're funny do the math. Ex-offico delegate support actually drops Michael Ignatieff slightly.
Miles you're funny do the math. Ex-offico delegate support actually drops Michael Ignatieff slightly
Thats not what I've heard elsewhere. Almost everyone else has been saying it would raise his support, but I guess we will find out in December.
Two points:
Check HarperBizarro's website for the analysis of ex officio members, which supports SB's observation.
Also, note that Ignatieff and Bob Rae had roughly the same percentage of their total delegates appointed in each of the three major areas (the west, Ontario and Quebec, and the east). Ignatieff had more delegates, but the geographic base of strength of these two front runners is remarkably the same. The results for Ontario and Quebec when taken separately are skewed because of the Kennedy vote, but when the two provinces are combined (they account for around 70% of both candidates' total delegates), a truer picture emerges.
The conclusion? The race is much tighter given the large number of uncommitted delegates and ex officio members, and both Ignatieff and Rae have wide support in all major regions of the country.
Curiositycat - You might be right. I was going by what Warren Kinsella, some other Liberal bloggers, Paul Wells, Jeffrey Simpson, and other media reports were saying. Michael Ignatieff does though have by far the most caucus support, which would appear to support my argument as well as the most support amongst defeated candidates. It is certainly no guarantee he will win. In fact between Ignatieff, Rae, Kennedy, and Dion, I think all of them have a decent chance of winning.
Was Ignatieff American? My cousin down in NJ has been following this race closely and if the American wins, he's seriously going to think about ripping up his NDP membership card
Was Ignatieff American? My cousin down in NJ has been following this race closely and if the American wins, he's seriously going to think about ripping up his NDP membership card
No Ignatieff is Canadian. He was born in Canada, lived in Britain for just over 20 years while he only lived in the United States for five years. As an intellectual he was hired to work at the Prestigious Carr Centre for Human Rights and the JFK school of Government at Harvard University. But he is mostly certainly not an American.
But he is mostly certainly not an American.
That explains why he's referred to Americans as "we" or "us" and called guys like Jefferson "our" founding fathers.
As if a Conservative ever would get away with saying thing slike that. If the Liberals pick this guy, they are collective a bunch of total hypocrites.
That explains why he's referred to Americans as "we" or "us" and called guys like Jefferson "our" founding fathers.
Brandon, Ignatieff admitted this was a mistake. He was anyways writing for an American audience. The guy has only lived five years out of 59 in the United States and only holds a Canadian passport.
As if a Conservative ever would get away with saying thing slike that. If the Liberals pick this guy, they are collective a bunch of total hypocrites.
Praising the conservative movement in the United States is a lot different than praising the founding fathers or what the country stands for. Ignatieff did support the War in Iraq, but he would never go on US television and apologize to Americans for Canada not supporting it.
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