Strategic Counsel: Liberals lead by Six
I am always skeptical if in between election polls so I do not whether these numbers will hold or not, but one thing they say for sure, Harper definitely has to really turn things around if he wants to still be PM in six months let alone in majority territory. According to the most recent strategic counsel poll, the Liberals are 37% compared to the Tories 31%, otherwise similiar to 2004 results and 48% in Ontario, 28 in the West, and 28% in Quebec. 55% said Stephane Dion was a good choice and that number jumped to 62% in Quebec. The only good thing for Harper is his approval rating was 56%. Now I'll admit it is really early to start making predictions, and considering an Ipsos poll showed the Conservatives at 37% and Liberals 31%, it is probably a bit early to start making predictions. However, hopefully come election the Liberals will be well ahead.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 8:10 PM
4 Comments:
I wouldn't read too much into this poll. It appears that it would be the classic convention bounce, and seeing as the Liberals have had about a week of dominant media coverage, they should get a rise in the polls.
The best example I can give is Bush in 2004. He skyrocketed in the polls after the RNC, just as Kerry did after the DNC. It's classic convention bounce.
If it were the same a month or two later, I'd be worried.
I agree it is a little early to say. Especially considering it contradicts the Ipsos Reid Poll. Still even if it is a classic post convention bounce, a six point deficit is not good for Harper since this means he needs a 12 point swing just to get back to where he was in January when he had a six point lead. It could happen, but it won't be easy.
Though, Ipsos said he would have a 13-point lead were Dion elected before the convention. Harper needs to climb back a bit, but I highly doubt it's as grim as this poll would say.
BC Tory - I think by the new year we will have a clearer picture about where things are. Still a seven point deficit is not good for Harper if he wants a majority government.
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