Garth Turner's Defection to the Liberals
I would like to welcome Garth Turner's decision to switch to the Liberals. He much like myself joins a long list of former Progressive Conservatives who have quit the party to switch to the Liberals. Ironically I asked him this question on a Globe and Mail Q & A and he did seem too enthusiastic about the idea then, although in fairness this was before Stephane Dion was chosen as leader and I somehow suspect had Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff won, he would have stayed an independent. For those accusing me of hypocricy, I would like to state unequovically I support the right of MPs to switch parties if they no longer feel welcome in them. I defended Wajid Khan's decision to defect even though I was disappointed. I only went after Emerson since his was opportunism at the worse since it was two weeks after an election and he went straight into cabinet. Some will argue Garth Turner is being a hypocrit for not resigning in running in a by-election, and while this is true, I ultimately believe the decision is up to the people of Halton to decide in the next election. If re-elected he will be vindicated, if defeated he will be repudiated.
In terms of the balance of power, this does not change anything is the NDP+Conservatives still have enough seats to pass the budget even if all other parties and independents vote against it. In terms of our chances of winning the riding, I would say they are quite good, although ironically they are much less than had Turner ran as an independent. Had Turner ran as an independent he would have split the right wing vote therefore ensuring a Liberal victory. Now I would say it is a toss up as the riding up until 1993 and still provincially has generally gone Conservative, but as the party has swung to the right and the GTA has expanded, the Liberals have become increasingly strong in this riding. In addition this is a centre-right, not ideological right riding so with the median voter lying to the right of the Liberals, but to the left of the Conservatives, it could really go either way just depending on the issue of the day as well as who his opponent is. If they choose a so-con like Charles McVety, he should win easily, but if they are somehow able to get Provincial MPP Ted Chuleigh to jump to federal politics or can get a former mayor of either Milton, Burlington, or Oakville, it might be a struggle. At least his chances of being re-elected are far better than David Emerson who has absolutely no chance and Wajid Khan whose has only a very small chance of being re-elected (I would say around 10%, whereas Turner is about 60%).
In other news, Gerard Kennedy has confirmed he will run in Parkdale-High Park, which is great news as he is very popular there and he is pretty much the only candidate that can ensure we re-take this riding. I plan to work on his campaign in whatever time I have since although he was not my first choice, I was very impressed with his emphasis on renewal and believe it is absolutely essential whether we win or lose the next election, he is in the House of Commons.
In terms of the balance of power, this does not change anything is the NDP+Conservatives still have enough seats to pass the budget even if all other parties and independents vote against it. In terms of our chances of winning the riding, I would say they are quite good, although ironically they are much less than had Turner ran as an independent. Had Turner ran as an independent he would have split the right wing vote therefore ensuring a Liberal victory. Now I would say it is a toss up as the riding up until 1993 and still provincially has generally gone Conservative, but as the party has swung to the right and the GTA has expanded, the Liberals have become increasingly strong in this riding. In addition this is a centre-right, not ideological right riding so with the median voter lying to the right of the Liberals, but to the left of the Conservatives, it could really go either way just depending on the issue of the day as well as who his opponent is. If they choose a so-con like Charles McVety, he should win easily, but if they are somehow able to get Provincial MPP Ted Chuleigh to jump to federal politics or can get a former mayor of either Milton, Burlington, or Oakville, it might be a struggle. At least his chances of being re-elected are far better than David Emerson who has absolutely no chance and Wajid Khan whose has only a very small chance of being re-elected (I would say around 10%, whereas Turner is about 60%).
In other news, Gerard Kennedy has confirmed he will run in Parkdale-High Park, which is great news as he is very popular there and he is pretty much the only candidate that can ensure we re-take this riding. I plan to work on his campaign in whatever time I have since although he was not my first choice, I was very impressed with his emphasis on renewal and believe it is absolutely essential whether we win or lose the next election, he is in the House of Commons.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 3:15 PM
7 Comments:
Since I called Emerson a douchebag for crossing the floor, I suppose the same can be said for Turner. So I'll say it now, Garth Turner is a douchebag.
That being said, I would hate to dirty this squeeky clean blog. :) In all honesty, I appreciate the consistency of your floor-crossing policy Miles. It shows integrity, something that Garth has lost.
Dylan - Well said. I know we have different opinions on floor crossing, but at least we are both consistent. The ones who annoy me the most are those who defend floor crossing when it is to their party, but slam it when it is to another party.
Just to point out that Turner JOINED the LPC while he was an INDEPENDENT - after being thrown out of the CPC caucus. He did not cross the floor as Emerson and Stronach did.
That said, if a member is not to be allowed to cross the floor, why would a party be allowed to remove a duly elected member from caucus?
Personally, I understand that I am asked to vote for the candidate I feel is best suited for the job. Their political affiliation remains their personal choice.
Loraine - It is true he didn't technically cross the floor although he still switched parties and is under a different party than being elected. Whether he becomes an independent first or crosses directly to the Liberals, I support the right of MPs to cross the floor.
As for removing members from caucus, I think if there is a legitimate reason, parties should be allowed to. In the case of Larry Spencer in the Canadian Alliance that was a legitimate reason since he made a bigoted remark. I also think throwing Nunziata out was legitimate since he voted against a confidence motion, which you cannot do.
In the case of Garth Turner it was inappropriate, still the parties do have the right to do so.
also like your floor-crossing policy. I too was disappointed in Wajid but never critised him for the choice he made.
I also agree with Loraine, "if a member is not to be allowed to cross the floor, why would a party be allowed to remove a duly elected member from caucus?"
too bad Kennedy didn't keep to his initial musings and run out west...guess he would rather win then expand the base out west.....so much for the "western candidate".
Regardless, he will be good for Canada as his ideas do transcend political boundaries most of the time.
Michelle - Although not floor crossing in the peer sense, he was not elected as Liberal so those opposed to floor crossing can argue he didn't get a mandate to switch. I would argue that since he was kicked out of his party and since the values he as an MP ran on are at least somewhat compatible with the Liberals he has the right to defect. In addition, there is a strong likelihood of an election in the next few months so his constituents will get to judge sooner or later. For those angry at his decision or feel it is a betrayal, don't vote for him.
Sean S - Parkdale-High Park is an NDP help riding although Kennedy is very popular there. I think since that is where he lives it makes sense to run there. The Liberals will obviously work on expanding their base in Western Canada, but the West is quite unpredictable so it is always good to have a Plan B in case things don't work out in the West. Ontario is far more predictable. In fact I could list off the ridings I think the Liberals are most likely to pick up and likewise I could list off the ridings they would lose were they to make a major screw-up during the election. In the West that would be a bit harder to do.
I do agree that Gerard Kennedy is a good asset and even if you don't agree with his views, I don't see why having him in the House of Commons would be a bad thing. The real question is which side should he beyond. I think it should be the government, but others feel the opposition would make more sense.
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