Manley and McKenna Bow out

Unfortuantely two high profile Liberals, Frank McKenna and John Manley have bowed out of running in the next Liberal leadership race. While some may say this means the Liberals are in serious trouble, I believe this has both good and bad aspects to it. On the one hand both were seasoned politicians with many advantages to helping re-build the Liberal Party. John Manley was a blue Liberal, but a Chretienite so he could help bring back the Chretienites who have since left the party. His experience as finance minister as well as the fact he was more policy driven than process driven could make him quite appealing. However, being seen as a Chretienite could have angered some of the Martin supporters. Also being a cabinet minister under the Chretien government when adscam occurred may make it difficult to claim he is completely innocent since even Martin who was exonerated was still dragged down by adscam. Whoever becomes the next Liberal leader must bring both the Chretien and Martin supporters into the fold if they wish to win the next election.

Frank McKenna no doubt was a very successful premier who won three back to back landslide majorities. In addition he is not from Central Canada so he could help put an end to this idea that the Liberals only elect Quebec or Ontario leaders. He also was not an MP during adscam so the corruption issue wouldn't weight the party down if he were to become leader. The one negative was many of the Martin people were supporting having him become leader so this may have made it difficult to bring some of the Chretien people back in. He is also a blue Liberal as well. Some may say choosing a Blue Liberal is a bad idea as it would ensure those who migrated over to the NDP stay with the NDP, however lets remember by looking at the stats, the Conservative vote went up by a greater percentage than the NDP vote and almost all of that outside of Quebec likely came at the expense of the Liberals, so choosing a blue Liberal could help win back some of the rural and suburban areas that fell to the Tories.

On the other hand, I believe there could be some real positive aspects about neither of these two running. I believe one of the problems the Liberals had was the last leadership race resulted in the coronation of Paul Martin and my worry is another leadership race leading to a coronation would generate little interest, excitement, or debate about the party. Instead this may mean that many lesser known players will come forward. This will get the public more interested in the leadership race, but will also mean a real debate on the serious issues, which I think is something the Liberal Party really needs. Too many people see the Liberals as only caring about power and not standing for anything. By having many contenders there would be an open debate on all the major issues and hopefully by the time the leader is chosen, the Liberal Party in the minds of most Canadians will clearly stand for something. Having a leader from neither the Chretien or Martin factions will help bring the party together, since if the party remains divided, the Liberals will lose again just as the Conservatives did throughout the 90s. Finally, if the leader is someone who was not a cabinet minister during the Chretien era, it will be difficult for the opponents to taint them with the corruption brush, which ultimately played a big role in the recent Liberal defeat. At this point it is much too early to say what will happen, but the Liberals must pull together if they are to have any hope of coming back next election.

Election Thoughts

After having a day to think over the election results, below I will give my thoughts on the performance of each party and on what I think happened in each region. On the whole I was not too disappointed in the election results. While I wanted the Liberals to win, it was clear on election day that this was not going to happen. Instead the Liberals formed a strong opposition, while the Conservatives won a weak minority, meaning they are on a tight leash, so no reason to worry about any far right policies being adopted. I also was pleased to see the Conservatives defeat 8 separtist members. For all my qualms with the Conservatives, I will always take any federalist party over a separtist party.

Conservatives: Stephen Harper clearly won a mandate to become Canada's next prime-minister, but it is a modest mandate. He has the mandate to clean up government and make changes advocated in the party's platform, but no mandate to adopt any radical changes. The party's failure to win any seats in Canada's three largest cities is a clear sign of where the party must focus if it wishes to win a majority government in the future. I will keep on an open mind on how Harper governs and should he turn out to not be as scary as I believe, I may consider going Conservative next time around, but for now I am sticking with the Liberals since I still worry about what type of government we would get if he won a majority government.

Liberals: The party did about as good as it could have given the weak campaign and strong desire for change. While I am somewhat sad to see Paul Martin resign, he did the right thing. The party needs fresh leadership and fresh ideas to re-build itself so it can once again form government. Unlike other Canadians, I believe Paul Martin will be looked upon kindly in history. It was under his leadership that turned Canada's economy around and turned massive deficits into massive surpluses. Thanks to his leadership, Canada is now in the best shape its ever been. As prime-minister, I also think he deserves credit in three areas: his leadership on bringing equality rights to gays and lesbians, the establishment of Canada's first social program since medicare (despite my misgivings on a national childcare, starting a new social program takes leadership and he should be commended). On medicare, waiting times are beginning to fall and even though he shouldn't get credit for solving medicare's woes, he did get the ball rolling. I also believe the Kelowna Accord may help solve Aboriginal Affairs. Finally here in BC, we have never had a government who has shown such a keen interest in BC. I suspect that explains why the Liberals gained seats in BC despite losing them elsewhere. To all successful Liberal candidates, I say good luck in your future careers and to all defeated candidates, thanks for your service to our country. After having time to go over the defeat, I will in later posts discuss on how to re-build the party.

Bloc Quebecois: Prior to the election everybody was expecting the Bloc Quebecois to win more seats and break the symbolic 50% + 1. Thankfully this did not happen and I believe that this is a clear victory for federalism. The Conservatives due to deserve credit for helping create an alternative federalist option in Quebec.

NDP: Jack Layton ran a strong campaign and I might add a positive one. He avoided the mudslinging that we saw of the other problems and this seems to have paid off. Hopefully this will be a lesson to other parties to focus on talking about what type of Canada we want, rather than mudslinging. I still continue to disagree with the NDP's policies strongly, but believe they are a legitimate part of our democracy as many Canadians do share their views.

Finally I should note that we have one independent, shock jock Andre Arthur from Quebec. Considering he is generally right leaning, I suspect he will be helpful in passing bills for the Conservatives.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Atlantic Canada: For the most part not too far off my predictions. Although I predicted the Tories would win 11 seats, the two seats I thought they would pick up were Saint John and West Nova, which were very close. PEI and Nova Scotia saw very little change from last time, while Conservatives closed the gap with the Liberals significantly in both Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick, but despite this, they only picked up one seat in each of those two provinces. Atlantic Canada still seems to have not totally forgiven Stephen Harper for his comments on Atlantic Canada being a culture of defeatism, especially in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. However, also in Atlantic Canada, defeating an incumbent is quite difficult compared to elsewhere in Canada.

Quebec: I was pleasantly surprised the Liberals won 13 seats in Quebec. I didn't expect them to hold Honore-Mercier, Outremont, or Hull-Aylmer, so I am quite pleased they did better than expected. I expect a lot of this has to do with Liberals being strongest amongst older Quebecers who are more likely to show up on election day. I was totally suprised at how well the Conservatives did. I don't think even the optimist within the Conservative Party expected them to win over 8 seats. Despite what the polls were saying, there was no Conservative ground organization in Quebec, so I was surprised they managed to get their vote out, which is essential for winning. I was off course happy to see the Bloc Quebecois fall in popular vote and lose seats.

Ontario: As I expected the NDP made gains in Ontario, the Tories made significant gains in rural/suburban Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and the non-GTA 905 belt ridings. The Tories shut out in the 416 and poor showing in the GTA portions of the 905 belt was no surprise as people in large urban areas generally won't vote for any party with any hint of social conservatism, whereas elsewhere is long as one doesn't wear social conservatism on their sleeves they can win elsewhere. There were a few surprises: I didn't expect us to hold Newmarket-Aurora, Brant, and Ottawa South, while on the other hand I was surprised the Conservatives picked up Sarnia-Lambton and Ottawa-Orleans. While the Liberals won more seats than the Conservatives, they fared poorly outside the GTA and with their strong showing in the West, gains in Quebec allowed for the party to win. Ontario much like British Columbia had the strong rural/suburban/urban divide. While the rural areas were already Conservative and the urban areas stayed Liberal, it was the suburban areas and mid sized cities is what tipped the balance in Ontario.

Manitoba/Saskatchewan: Went largely Conservative, but I was glad to see Tina Keeper pick up Churchill. I was surprised to see the Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South, while surprised, but pleased to see the Liberals take Churchill River in Saskatchewan. Once again the NDP was shut out of Saskatchewan, so it will be interesting if the party alters its policies to make it more appealing to Saskatchewan or will they be happy with their gains in Ontario and British Columbia.

Alberta: To no one's surprise, it went solidly Conservative. I was disappointed to see Anne McLellan go down in defeat, but at least I know Alberta will have someone sitting on the government benches. My biggest fear was of a Conservative win with no seats in Quebec or a Liberal win with no seats in Alberta. Thankfully neither scenario came to fruition. Even though Alberta having a prime-minister from their province is definitely good for the province, I would say to all Albertans don't set your expectations to high. You have right to be angry about being ignored in the past, but that doesn't mean you have the right to dominate Canada. We need to bring Alberta in, which I hope we can do. I also ask all Alberta separtists now that the Conservatives are in to quit talking about separation. You got your wish, now time to stop complaining.

British Columbia: BC has a long history of bucking the national trend and sure enough BC did it again. Once again, BC elected more opposition members than government members. I was right in my predictions in every riding except Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, which I thought the NDP would win, but thankfully I was wrong here. I was pleased to see religious fundamentalists Cindy Silver, John Weston, Darrel Reid, and Paul Forseth lose. A word of advice to the Conservatives, urban and suburban ridings have little tolerance for religious fundamentalists so if you want to win ridings like West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, North Vancouver, Richmond, and Ajax-Pickering, run moderate candidates, not religious fundamentalists. I was disappointed Joyce Murray in New Westminster-Coquitlam came in third, but very pleased with the results in Fleetwood-Port Kells. Had the national campaign not been such a disaster, I believe Brenda Locke would have won the riding. I was glad to see David Emerson re-elected. He has brought much to BC and I am sure he will continue to do so even if in opposition. I was also glad to see Svend Robinson lose.

As final parting note, I am pleased to see Voter Turnout increase to 65%. While not as high as I wanted, I am glad to see it is going up not down. I will later talk about what lead to the defeat of the Liberals later this week.

Comment Note

In order to comply with section 329, which prohibits broadcasting results from one part of the country to other parts where the polls are still closed, I am closing off the comments until I get home later tonight. I think this is a ridiculous law, but I don't want to risk getting fined. Anyways there are plenty of other locations you can get results, not to mention if you know someone in Atlantic Canada, just give them a call.

Final Campaign Blog

Well the campaign looks to be coming to an end. Unless the polls are seriously wrong (which depending on which direction could be a good or bad thing) it looks like we will have a Conservative minority.

Today I went to a rally Paul Martin held for Joyce Murray, Liberal candidate for New Westminster-Coquitlam. The fact that Paul Martin choose to have his last two stops in Fleetwood-Port Kells and New Westminster-Coquitlam means the Liberals must think those ridings are at play. Things do seem to be tightening up here in BC as Conservative support is falling and NDP support is rising, which could allow the Liberals to come up the middle (here in BC switching from the NDP to Conservatives is quite common as silly and as puzzling as it sounds). The media was there, the president of the Liberal Party Mike Eizenga and even Scott Reid who made the infamous beer and popcorn comment was there. Also former MLA and city councillor Richard Stewart was there to support Joyce Murray's campaign despite the fact he stuck me as a Conservative in the past. Being held in a small coffee shop, not everyone was able to fit in, so I couldn't really hear what the prime-minister had to say. Still it was good to have such a strong showing. At the end the prime-minister came out with a coffee (I heard he drinks 10-15 a day). As it turns out he not only turned down a free coffee offered by the owner, but even paid a tip for the coffee. I also talked to a visitor from Georgia who has a friend helping out Joyce Murray's campaign. She obviously agreed with much of my views on Bush and even agreed that Canada-US relations wouldn't likely get better until Bush leaves the White House.

Anyways tomorrow I will be scrutineering in Port Moody for Joyce Murray from 6:30-7:30. Around 11:00 to midnight when I get home, I will post my thoughts on the election if I am not too tired.

My advice to all Liberal voters, surprises do happen, so be sure to show up and vote. For NDP voters, voting NDP in most parts of the country will only help elect a Conservative member so decide for yourself who you would rather have as prime-minister, Paul Martin or Stephen Harper. For Conservative supporters, you've had eight weeks to vent your anger, but now is time to think about what a Stephen Harper government will mean and vote accordingly. I've given many examples of his hidden agenda, so I would hope anyone voting Conservative would realize what they are voting for. For Green voters, the Liberals had one of the greenest budget, so despite their past environmental record, they have a plan for a cleaner environment whereas the Conservatives don't, so the Liberals are better for the environment than the Conservatives. For Bloc supporters, the Bloc Quebecois will always be in opposition while Stephen Harper is out of touch with mainstream Quebecers, so if you want someone to represent Quebec's interests vote for a party that can win and supports Quebec interests. Finally for the undecided voters, there is only one party that is moderate and close to the centre, which is the Liberal Party. Most of all whoever you plan to vote for, be sure to vote.

Election Predictions

Okay here are my predictions by each region. Feel free to leave your own predictions in the comment section.

Atlantic Canada: The Liberals are still slightly ahead, but the gap is a lot smaller than last time around.

Liberals 18 seats - 42%
Conservatives 11 seats - 37% (Pick up Avalon, West Nova, Saint John, and Tobique-Mactaquac)
NDP 3 seats - 23%

Quebec: The Liberals have fallen through the floor, the Tories have surged while the Bloc Quebecois is more or less at where they were last time around. The Liberals strength is limited to West Montreal while Tories have been growing the most in Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.

Bloc Quebecois 62 seats - 46%
Liberals 8 seats - 18% (Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, St. Leonard-St. Michel)
Conservatives 5 seats - 24% (Louis-St. Laurent, Beauce, Pontiac and two others in Quebec City and/or Eastern Townships)

Ontario: The Tories have gained significantly in the 905 belt, Southwestern Ontario, and Eastern Ontario, however most recent polls show the Liberals making somewhat of recovery in Ontario. The NDP is also up too in Ontario.

Liberals 53 - 38% (20/22 in 416, 17/28 in 905 belt, 6 in Southwestern Ontario, 6 in Northern Ontario, 4 Eastern Ontario

Conservatives 41 - 36% (10 in 905 belt, 16 in Southwestern Ontario, 1 Northern Ontario, 13 Eastern Ontario

NDP - 12 - 21% (Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Oshawa, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Kenora, Timmins-James Bay, Sault Ste. Marie)

Manitoba/Saskatchewan - Not much change from last time around

Conservatives 19 - 44% (lose Regina-Qu'appelle, hold everything else)
Liberals 5 - 29% (Pick up Churchill)
NDP 4 - 25%

Alberta: Not a huge change, but this time around the Tories should sweep the province.

Conservatives 28 - 63%
Liberals 0 - 19%
NDP 0 - 13%

British Columbia: Not much change either

Conservatives 17 - 37%
NDP 11 - 30% (pick up British Columbia Southern Interior, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Victoria, Vancouver Island North, New Westminster-Coquitlam and Surrey North)
Liberals 8 - 28% (lose Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Victoria, pick up West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country and Newton-North Delta)

North
Liberals 2 (Yukon and Nunavut)
NDP 1 (Western Arctic)

Totals
Conservatives 121 - 36%
Liberals 94 - 29%
Bloc Quebecois 62 - 12%
NDP 31 - 19%
Green 0 - 5%

Stephen Harper's Abortion Position

Stephen Harper when asked by the media where he stands on abortion gave an ambiguous response, which suggests those who value a women's right to choose should be very concerned. I agree he won't do anything in his first term, but I am worried that he will wait until he can stack the senate and judiciary with Conservative idealogues and then act to roll back abortion. I understand many people are upset with the Liberals, but I make a final plea, the Tories under Harper are still unfit to govern. Vote Liberal for the last time to let the Tories choose a new leader who is fit to govern and is truly a moderate, not a pretend moderate and at that point vote the Liberals out. But if you still insist on voting Conservative, at least check out your local candidate and don't vote Conservative in ridings with socially conservative candidates.

Paul Martin speaks at Vancouver Board of Trade

This morning before heading off to work, I went to listen to Paul Martin make a speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade, which I am a member of. This is where back in the 90s they had the famous debt clock that was shown every night on the evening news. In 1999 Paul Martin came to hit the bell to stop the debt clock once the budget had been balanced. Since then it has been storn away and he promised that it would remain storn away as long as he was prime-minister

I was a little disappointed with the negative tone spending more time attacking Harper than putting out his own policies, but he did make some really good points. Harper's plan simply doesn't add up. Even the Conference Board of Canada claims the plan they endorsed didn't include the health care guarantee or fixing the fiscal imbalance. Now some of you might say the Liberals always underestimate the surplus, which is true at the moment since we are in an economic boom, but if a recession was to strike again we would go back into deficit or Harper would have to make massive spending cuts. Now I have nothing against spending cuts if done in the right areas, but I believe any leader who wants to cut spending should tell us where he will cut. At least Mike Harris had the courage to tell people in 1995 what programs he was planning to cut. Also he attacked their capital gains tax cut, which I am supportive of if there is the revenue available, but low and middle income tax cuts are more important than capital gains tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy. I believe that this election is not just about values, but about re-electing a government who has a strong proven record of fiscal prudence or electing a government with very little experience in government and whose numbers don't seem to add up. In 2001, when I voted to throw the NDP out, they had messed up the economy so it was the right time for a change in government, but today with the economy doing so well, I don't believe it is the right time for change, even though the Liberals have plenty of faults.

After the speech, I went up to shake hands with the prime-minister. I also introduced myself to Health minister Ujjal Dosanjh and later when leaving to West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country Liberal candidate Blair Wilson (who will hopefully be the next MP for WVSCSSC come January 23rd). I finally briefly met Paul Martin. I didn't get to talk long about any policies, but as soon as I introduced myself and told him who my Dad was, he remembered him from 30 years ago when my Dad worked at Commerce Capital in Montreal where Paul Martin was a board of director then. He seemed like a very likeable person, although having never met Layton or Harper I cannot really say what they are like. Anyways I had always wanted to meet the prime-minister so with the polls showing it more and more likely he won't be re-elected, I wanted to take advantage of this last chance in the event he isn't re-elected. Hopefully the Liberals will still win, but I know the odds are not very good. However, unlike some other Liberals, I still haven't given up hope no matter how faint that hope may be. I won't concede the Liberals losing or Harper becoming PM until I actually see it happen.

Conservative Victory Imminent?

Anyone who has followed the recent polls is no doubt aware that the Conservatives are approximately 10 points ahead of the Liberals and on the cusp of a majority government. The question now comes, can the Liberals turn it around in ten days. My response is yes they can, although the odds are not very good. Clearly the Conservatives have run an outstanding campaign, which is why they are where they are. Much of their success has come from the middle class male suburban voters who tend to be centre-right, thus not afraid of the Conservatives, but not hardcore conservatives either. Urban voters, women, youth, and gays & lesbians still for the large part remain terrified of a Harper victory. Below I will give my analysis on the some of the recent events by the two major parties;

Liberals: The Liberals released their red book this week. On the whole it had many policies I liked and despite my general unhappiness with the campaign so far, the Liberals have generally tended to run to the left and govern to the right. Some policies I particularly liked was to stop clawing back a $1 of social assistance for every $1 earned since this creates a welfare trap, which discourages people from trying to seek work. I also liked their policies of making Canada more competitive globally and I agree with Martin that it is not just the United States, but the European Union, China, India, and Brazil who will become major competitors in the 21st century. Their part of banning weapons in space is the part that got the most attention despite being a relatively minor point. It is a noble goal, which I wholeheartedly endorse, but I don't think it will work since the United States under Bush doesn't care what others think and will do what they want. On the attack ads, my comments are posted below, but let me repeat, the military one was despicable and whoever's idea it was should be immediately fired. The other ads were legitimate quotes although the tone was a little overly negative. I was also quite disappointed on their comment that entrenching property rights in the Charter would lead to child labour, weaker environmental laws, and a whole host of doomsday scenarios. I agree in the 30s in the United States property rights were abused, but that is a different era and besides you can write it differently to avoid those problems. Nevertheless I think it is more rhetoric than anything since the Bill of Rights already provides protection for property rights. I think Blue Grit sums it up quite well so I won't go into more detail. I am also quite pleased with how they handled the David Oliver issue in Abbotsford. While these are just allegations, the Liberals not only prevented him from sitting in the Liberal caucus should he win as the Tories did yesterday with Derek Zeisman, they banned him from using anything associated with the Liberals in his campaign, will return the $1.75 for every vote he receives and he will re-adjust their spending limits to 307 candidates instead of 308. The Tories on the other hand only banned Derek Zeisman from sitting in the Tory caucus and were not as quick to act. Still I think this will not help or hinder either party. I must say I find it puzzing David Oliver would try to bribe the NDP candidate not to run since this is the safest conservative riding in BC, so even the combined NDP + Liberal vote still wouldn't be enough to win this. This might have made sense electorally in other ridings, although certainly indefensible still. In Summary, I think the Liberal campaign has been terrible, but I still like the platform and I still don't trust Stephen Harper so I will reluctantly vote Liberal, at the very least to ensure Harper only gets a minority, not a majority. I should finally add I will get to see Paul Martin in person on Monday since he is making a speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade, which I am a member of.

Conservatives: To date they have run a pretty solid campaign, but now with the Liberals releasing some of his past statements, so I think people should give the Tories a good hard look. At the very least, check out your local candidate first and don't vote Conservative in ridings with religious fundamentalists (my riding isn't one of them), but only ones with moderate candidates. Vic Toews past statements on abortion are quite troubling as are Rondo Thomas' from Ajax-Pickering's insulting statements of declaring war on all supporters of same-sex marriage. Check this video out of Rondo Thomas declaring war on supporters of same-sex marriage. This guy should also be told he cannot sit in the Conservative caucus if he wins. Also Paul Forseth's wife, Maureen Forseth called Christians to rally around him since he would promote Christian values in parliament . As Joyce Murray, the Liberal candidate rightly pointed out, an MP should represent all religions not just some. Another troubling part of Stephen Harper is is the speech he made to the far right Canadian Alliance for Social Justice and Family Values who have in the past compared homosexuality to bestality and compared Chretien and Martin to Hitler. Anyone who associates with such group should raise a certain amount of suspicion. His comment that he still holds his conservative views from the 1997 speech is also troubling. Today the Tories released their platform. I haven't read the whole thing, but most of it has already been announced. I did like the part on the capital gains tax cut. There have been some concerns it may lead to deficits and I think that is partially true, but not totally. Under the current conditions, they could easily meet their spending priorities without going into deficit, but if the economy took a turn for the worse, then they would unless they held off on their spending plans, which is probably what they would do, at least I would hope. However, there are three recent statements by Harper I have trouble with. The first one is pulling out of Kyoto. I was against Canada ratifying the agreement in the first place since I didn't feel we could realistically meet the targets and I don't think we can. But once you ratify a treaty, if you decide to pull out, it can do major damage to the country's international reputation. I think what he should of said, is I don't believe we can realistically meet our Kyoto targets, but we will try our best to at least cut pollution well below its current levels. Secondly, he said he was interested in re-opening the BMD talks. Although it is not likely a major issue, I would rather he keep his distance from the United States until Bush leaves the White House. Finally, his decision to not commit to the Kelowna agreement is unacceptable. There was a lot of effort put into dealing with First Nations issues and to pull out now shows the party's lack of understanding for First Nations' issues. I know our premier in BC, Gordon Campbell worked very hard on putting this summit together so I think ignoring it would be completely wrong.

Prediction: Conservatives 110-130 seats, Liberals 90-120 seats, BQ 50-65 seats, NDP 20-30 seats, so still winneable for the Liberals, but not highly probable.

The English Debate II

The English debate had some interesting exchanges, but no knockout punches. I was quite impressed with Steve Paikin's questions including asking some difficult ones, which I think all parties need to be put on the spot for. In terms of winners, everyone who I've talked to and every blog I've been to says whoever they were hoping for won, so this debate seems to have changed a little. Off Course I am no different since I think Martin won, but I am sure any Tory and NDP visitors here would disagree. Here is my summary of each leader

Martin: With his numbers slipping further and further behind in the polls, he needed to use this debate to turn it around. I was impressed with the impassion he spoke with. I also liked his comments on economic matters like lower taxes, Canada being competitive with the United States, China, and India, and the strong economy. His surprise announcement on the notwithstanding clause will be interesting in terms of how this plays out. I agree with him, but I am not sure how well it will go over. I also agreed with Harper's plan to put property rights in the Charter, which I know the Liberals condemned as an extreme right wing idea, so I am not a blind liberal partisan. I felt Martin was right to quote some of Harper's old speeches. This is not about smearing Harper, but simply having Harper explain whether he stills holds those views or not, which is a legitimate question.

Harper: Was relatively calm and answered the questions reasonably well, so I would give him a close second. However, he did some like a bit like a coldfish, although I guess most people are use to him being that way. I felt his response on the notwithstanding clause trap, even though I disagree with him, was well answered as was his talk about working with the NDP. He knows that if NDP voters switch to the Liberals at the last moment to stop a Tory victory he could be in trouble, so smart move.

Duceppe: Actually one of his weaker debates, although since English is not his first language, I think we can cut him some slack. Besides this was really a warm-up as besides a few Anglophones in Montreal and other parts of Quebec, there probably weren't too many Quebecers watching the debate. He was a lot better in the French debate, but I'll talk about that tomorrow

Layton: Was caught between a rock and a hard place, but despite what others said, I think he did an okay job. He couldn't spend too much time attacking only Martin or Harper, so I felt he found the right balance. Also his remarks of the Liberals and Tories being the same while the solution for working people is to send More New Democrats was probably not a bad idea. Since a minority government looks likely, he needs to emphasize the importance of more New Democrats, which I think he did.

So how will this play out. Martin did a good job of holding his ground as did Harper, but with Martin trailing he needed a knockout punch, which he didn't get. Now the attack ads and future policy announcements are all he has left. I still think the Liberals can win since if the Tories could go from 5 points behind to 10 points ahead, then surely things can turn the other way, although I'll admit a Liberal victory is becoming increasingly difficult day by day. Harper is now in the home stretches and although unlike last time he has some wiggle room since he can drop a bit and still become prime-minister, he cannot afford to have another Randy White incident if he wishes to win the election.

Predictions: Conservatives 105-125 Liberals 100-120, Bloc Quebecois 55-65, NDP 20-30 seats, so still not over yet.

Liberal Attack Ads

The first attack ads have come out so this just might be enough to turn the campaign around. While it is unfortunate that we have to go to attack ads, I believe this is the only way to stop a Conservative victory. For those saying it is propaganda, unlike last time these are actual quotes from Harper. What effect will have? Its difficult to say but I suspect it will scare of some soft Tories, but I am not sure whether it will be enough to turn it around since the Liberals seem to be quite a ways behind. I think they should have launched them a week ago when they were tied to halt the momentum in its footsteps. We'll just have to say, but I hope it works.

I'll have more on the debates later.

Uh huh the Hidden Agenda found

Just as the Randy White tape last time tanked the Conservative campaign, it looks like they've found one from Vic Toews. Now I am a little surprised they are releasing it this early as this would still give the Conservatives time to recover. Anyways here it is

The Real Stephen Harper

For those who are saying Harper is a moderate we can all trust him to clean up government check this out

Scary isn't it. I hope any Canadian thinking of voting Conservatives reads this before going to the ballot box. Those voting Conservative should at least know what they are getting.

Conservatives spending priorities don't add up

If you are a fiscal conservative who thought the Conservative plans to raise taxes were bad enough than check
this out

It looks like a Conservative government would also take us back into deficit unless they have spending cuts planned, which they aren't telling us. I am not against spending cuts, but they should at least be upfront about them. Either way those are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, should realize the Conservatives are neither and is why they don't deserve to be elected.

Tories want to raise Taxes

Check this out

One more reason I am not voting Tory. I hope this convinces all Libertarian conservatives who are fiscally conservative, but socially progressive that the current Conservatives are neither.

Liberals BC Agenda

Today the Liberals released their agenda for BC, which can be found here.
I would urge all those who say the Liberals are bad for BC to look at what the party has actually done in the last 18 months and judge for yourself. I understand that Chretien and Trudeau had a tendency to ignore BC, but guess what Trudeau is dead and Chretien isn't leading the Liberal Party anymore, so time to move on. In all fairness to the Tories, their BC agenda is not that bad, although it lacks specifics on focuses too much on economics and law & order. I believe the economy is the most important issue, but I like the fact the Liberals have demonstrated that having a strong economy is not conflicting with having strong social programs and a clean environment, in fact a strong economy goes hand in hand with both. I also feel they are the most balanced party overall who doesn't try to follow an ideology in a rigid fashion.

Hopefully this can turn things around in BC where the Tories are gaining, but unfortunately BC despite being generally liberal in attitude on most issues has since 1993, had a tendency to elect very right wing candidates who don't necessarily reflect the views of most British Columbians. Tories were offside with British Columbians on both the Iraq War and BMD. They were offside on same-sex marriage, and they are offside in advocating a US style War on Drugs, including the cancelling of the four pillars approach on harms reduction which even Sam Sullivan who is a Tory disagrees with. I also don't buy this idea the West is monolithic. BC has about as much in common with Alberta politically as it does with Ontario. In addition I think the Liberal plan on senate reform makes far more sense than the Tory plan. British Columbia is under-represented in the Senate, so electing senators while still being under-represented won't do anything to solve Western Alienation. The senate formula is out of date and therefore BC needs more senate seats, something the Liberals believe in, but Harper seems more concerned about electing senators than seeing BC has more seats in the senate.

Finally I do hope that those planning to vote Tory at least look at their local candidates. There are moderate ones like Stephen Rogers, Tony Fogarassy, Kanman Wong, Tarlok Sablok, Troy de Souza, Robin Baird, and James Moore who I have no problem with. But people like John Weston, Cindy Silver, Marc Dalton, Paul Forseth, Randy Kamp, Darrel Reid, Nina Grewal, Russ Hiebert, Mark Warawa, Colin Mayes, Mike Scott, Derek Zeisman, Stockwell Day, John Duncan, James Lunney, and Gary Lunn have all made statements in the past that I would describe as extreme (Just before the election, I will dig up some past statements of these people on post them here so people have fresh in their mind what they are voting for). One saying one is moderate doesn't make one moderate. I especially would like to draw people's attention to Darrel Reid and Cindy Silver who the former was the most president of the American religious fundamentalist group Focus on the Family (Canada) and Cindy Silver who was a lawyer for them as well as intervened in the most recent court case to deny gays and lesbians from being added to the human rights code. There is also John Weston who was a member of an anti-abortionist group, Gary Lunn who still says we join Bush in his imperialist War against Iraq. In fact many if not most BC Tory candidates want to repeal the SSM law, which can only be done through using the notwithstanding clause, something I strongly oppose. Also many still support the immoral and reckless war against Iraq and argue that our foreign policy should not be one iota of difference between us and the Americans. If these are the type of people you want to represent you, then vote Tory, but if you don't support those type of views, then don't vote for them. If you cannot stomach going Liberal, then go Green, NDP, Libertarian, Rhino, Independent or whoever. I really hope these people don't win as they only further alienate BC by giving it a bad reputation of being a province of right wing extremists, when in fact we are in many ways more liberal than Ontario. Voting Conservative simply because you want change or believe the Liberals are corrupt can be very risky, this is how one gets bad governments. Vote for whose values are closest to yours, not out of anger. That is why I am voting Liberal despite my disappointment with some of the things the Liberals have done.

Liberals in Trouble?

I know of recent the polls are not looking too great for the Liberals and many Tories are gloating about the Liberals being in free-fall. I say not so fast. The decima poll that showed the two tied, also showed a large number of NDP supporters would switch to the Liberals if a Tory victory looks possible. In addition as in the past, the Liberals fall when people get angry, but when people have time to think through what a Conservative victory would mean the Liberals always re-bound. The Liberals have been in far worse shape than they are now and they still always come back, so I still think they will win a good size minority government, at least 120 seats (-10 in Ontario, -10 in Quebec +5 in BC) and if they can turn things around maybe as high as 140 seats (-5 Quebec, +5 Ontario, +5 BC). Anyways I thought I would comment on the recent controversies and give my advice for how the Liberals can win the election.

Mike Klander's blog where he compared Olivia Chow to a Chow-Chow dog was completely unacceptable. I will not defend what is defenceless, but let me say that there are 500,000 Liberal members so to tar a whole party with a negative brush for the work of a few bad apples is insulting to the many honest and hard-working Liberals who part in hours of work to help the party. David Emerson's saying was a bit over the top, but I should remind everyone, it was his wife, not him who originally made the joke and his wife happens to be Chinese, so, so much for him being a racist. Hopefully this won't cost him his seat since it would be a real shame to lose a cabinet minister who has done so much for BC. I should also remind all Chinese voters that it is the Liberal Party who has been supportive of more immigration, the Liberal Party who introduced the Charter of Rights and Freedoms that protects minority rights. While the Conservatives may claim they are champions of minority rights, that was the former Progressive Conservatives who were swallowed up by the far right wing Reform Party that has a strong racist element in it. It was Sharon Hayes who was a strong Harper backer that claimed Chinese doctors encourage eating human feces as part of their diet. Betty Granger who talked about the Asian Invasion was a big Harper backer when he ran for leader of the Canadian Alliance. Stephen Harper once even said that "west of Winnipeg the only ridings that vote Liberal are ridings made up of recent Asian immigrants or people from Eastern Canada. They live in ghettoes and are not integrated into Western Canadian society". Brian Mulroney and Joe Clark were both champions of minority rights, but the party they ran no longer exists, instead it is the party of Preston Manning and Stockwell Day who were anything but tolerant of people different than themselves. This may be controversial what I have posted, but I believe all those planning to vote Conservative have the right to know the past of some of their important players before voting.

The second big issue is the RCMP investigating the Income Trust leak. I will start off by saying I fully support Ralph Goodale and believe he is innocent. While it is normal for a cabinet minister to step down when under investigation, this is not normal circumstances. Ralph Goodale is merely a caretaker, but really cannot do much during the writ period. After the election is over, if the Liberals lose, he is out of cabinet automatically unless a coalition government is formed, but that is a different story. If the Liberals win again, hopefully by the time Paul Martin appoints his new cabinet, this will be cleared up, but if not Ralph Goodale probably should be dropped from cabinet until cleared up. I personally don't believe he did anything wrong since politicians always give the media advanced warning when they are going to make an important announcement. Investing in the stock market is about speculating on the future so if the finance minister says he has an important announcement on the eve of an election, wouldn't it be logical to guess that it would be about not taxing income trusts. I don't see this as insider trading, but rather smart investing. Still it is probably better to get the RCMP to investigate so the whole issue so it is cleared up rather than have the cloud hanging over us even after the election. I've always seen Ralph Goodale as one of the more honest members so I am confident he is not guilty of any wrongdoing. I am also confident if someone in the finance department did leak insider information, they will be punished accordingly. Hopefully this clears things up for anyone who was initially planning to go Liberal, but is now thinking of going Conservative.

As for the Liberals, there are two things they need to do to win, talk about their record and continue to hammer Stephen Harper on his past controversial statements. Some say negative ads won't work two times in a row; after all it worked for Mike Harris in 1999, but not for Ernie Eves in 2003. The difference here is they tried to portray Dalton McGuinty as being a weak leader, so this was believable in 1999 when he was an unknown, but not in 2003 when he was a known figure. If the Liberals do over the top ads that they have nothing to back it up with, then yes it will backfire. But if they use actual quotes of Stephen Harper, and believe me there are many, Stephen Harper will have no choice but to go on the defensive. Either he will admit to those quotes, which will prove he is too extreme to be prime-minister or he will deny them showing he is untrustworthy, or he will say his views have changed, showing he is unreliable since how do we know then he won't flip-flop again. My advice run a 30 second ad flashing up several controversial quotes from Harper. On the positive side, focus on the Liberal record, especially the economy. People don't throw out governments generally when the economy is doing well, so if you show people the economy is doing well, taxes are down, eight consecutive balanced budgets, lowest unemployment in 30 years, low interest rates meaning more home owners than ever before, this should work. When people can see the results in their own lives of government policies working well, they will vote to re-elect them. Avoid health care and crime as those issues the Liberal record is not as good on as the economy. As Warren Kinsella (even though I know he dislikes Martin) once said back when advising Chretien, when a topic you are weak on comes up, click, change the channel. On Canada-US relations, this can be used since Bush is very unpopular in Canada so the more they can do to connect Harper to Bush, the better their chances are. Improving Canada-US relations may be what Canadians want, but most Canadians see Bush not Martin as the problem and believe they cannot be improved until Bush leaves the White House, so worry about improving them in 2009, not now.

Predictions: Lib 120-140 seats, Con 80-105 seats, BQ 55-65 seats, NDP 15-30 seats.